Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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394 FXUS61 KILN 170811 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 411 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move from the Carolinas into the southern Appalachians today where it will stall. The region will be on the northern periphery of this large system which will gradually weaken as the week progresses. This will result in a chance of rain showers mainly southeast of I-71 today and Wednesday. High pressure will then offer dry weather for the end of the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Stacked mid level and surface low over the Carolinas to track west into the southern Appalachians today. This will keep a fair amount of cloud cover across the region. In addition, an increase in moisture combined with a disturbance rotating around the northern periphery of this system will bring some showers into the southeastern part of the forecast area mainly this afternoon. Low levels will remain dry and most of the model solutions keep any measurable precipitation rather light. Clouds will keep daytime temperatures a little cooler than today - but still continue above normal. Expect highs to range from near 80 southeast to the mid 80s northwest. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Stacked low will meander thru the southern Appalachians tonight into Wednesday. Evening pops for a rain shower over the southeast will decrease to slight chance overnight. Clouds and an increase in low level moisture will result in warmer readings with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Expect a slight diurnal uptick with chance pops for a shower in the far southeast Wednesday afternoon. Expect warm highs to range from the lower 80s to the middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure containing scant moisture is likely to keep dry weather across the Ohio Valley through the period. Some model members indicate a low threat for showers on Monday, but the chance is below the threshold to appear in the forecast. Temperatures will stay quite warm. Highs in the mid and upper 80s Thursday and Friday will increase to around 90 on Saturday. Under a modest decrease in geopotential heights, temperatures may then drop a few degrees to the mid 80s by Monday. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weakening low pressure system approaching from the southeast will provide an increase in mid and high level clouds through the TAF period. A few light rain showers or sprinkles will be possible southeast of I-71 this afternoon into this evening, but should generally remain to the southeast of the TAF sites. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR