Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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549 FXUS63 KIWX 172323 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 723 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions to persist through at least the start of the upcoming weekend. Drought conditions will continue to worsen. - Low humidity values combined with little/no chance of rainfall will allow for heightened concerns for field and grass fires. - Very low confidence chances for light rainfall Sun into Mon are unlikely to help the very dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The region will remain sandwiched between a nearly stationary, stacked upper low over the western Carolinas and a deep upper low over N Utah. The Utah low will move NE with the upper ridging keeping it well west of us, resulting in a continuation of the stagnant pattern through at least Saturday with temperatures well into the 80s and maybe making a run at 90. Deeper moisture will remain west of the area for the foreseeable future with little overall increase arriving until maybe late this weekend. Evapotranspiration readings at the office have shown a steady loss of 1 to 2 tenths of an inch of moisture every day for the past week, with very limited hope for needed, meaningful rainfall anytime soon. In addition, afternoon RH values will likely dip to either side of 30%, further drying grasses and crops with burn bans starting to be implemented in some areas of eastern Indiana into Ohio. Winds will remain on the lighter side, limiting concerns for red flag conditions. Yet another low will move into the SW US late this week and make an attempt to move towards the region. Medium range models vary on nearly every details of this wave (moisture, strength, timing and track) resulting in a very low confidence forecast with any minimal chances likely remaining confined to W/NW areas and probably not even worthy of the slgt chc to low chc pops currently depicted in the model blend. Confidence is just as low into next week with handling of additional energy as the ridging finally begins to give way, but deeper moisture needed for meaningful rainfall likely remains locked south or west of the area. Suffice to say even if some rainfall occurs, it will be a far cry from what is needed to start moving the drought conditions in the opposite direction. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Generally east winds with surface high pressure to our east continues to keep our area dry and devoid of clouds. Those east winds will bring marine air in off of Lake Erie and bring the potential for fog Wednesday morning at FWA. Wind speeds remain below 10 kts through the period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Roller