Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
438 FXUS62 KKEY 170258 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1058 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1058 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 This evening roughly mirrored yesterday, with the afternoon featuring a reverse cloud line followed by a stark decrease in coverage. The main difference tonight is the broad area of activity over Cuba and the outflow boundary from this convection moving into our distant waters. The long stretch of light and generally variable winds is continuing across the Florida Keys forecast area. Temperatures have struggled to drop further than the upper 80s in most island communities and dew points are still in the upper 70s, making for quite a humid evening. Looking to our north, isolated showers are situated along a stationary boundary draped across Central Florida. Even farther north, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (PTC 8) is centered over the Carolina coast. For tonight, a few boundaries still lingering across our area could ignite and produce showers and potentially a few thunderstorms. The main story for the night will be deep tropical moisture being pulled across our area as PTC 8 starts to merge with an upper trough. While most of the unsettled weather is expected during the day tomorrow, convection could begin to ramp up earlier tomorrow morning. Due to the uncertainty in the exact set up and location of the aforementioned synoptic features, have decided not to waiver on the 40% rain chances, especially with the already unstable environment that was sampled by the 00Z sounding. The forecast remains on track and no changes were necessary. && .MARINE... Issued at 1058 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. Light and generally variable breezes will continue through Saturday across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Winds and seas will be elevated in and around thunderstorms, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday, though background winds will remain light and variable. Northerly swell generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight currently centered across the Carolinas will linger through Tuesday and Wednesday. This disturbance will deepen into an upper-level trough and slowly slide south towards the Florida Peninsula through Saturday. Unpredictability in the movement of this trough means confidence in the extended forecast is very low. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Keys, and a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Middle and Lower Keys. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail tonight, but conditions will begin to deteriorate by tomorrow morning. Convective coverage is expected to increase by around 12Z tomorrow, so VCSH has been included to account for this. As confidence in this timing increases, TEMPOs will likely be added to the TAFs. Outside of convection, winds will generally be light and variable overnight before becoming east to southeast by tomorrow. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 97F was recorded. This is also tied for the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of September for the Marathon area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 89 82 89 / 40 60 60 50 Marathon 82 90 81 89 / 40 60 60 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest