016
FXUS64 KLCH 110426
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1126 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Just a few showers remain from the earlier convection and this
activity should continue to diminish with the loss of daytime
heating bringing about a rather stable and quiet remainder of the
evening into the overnight.

A few nocturnal showers may form toward sunrise over the coastal
waters, however, mid level wind flow should keep any landbreeze
development offshore.

Another round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms is
expected on Tuesday afternoon, mainly near I-10 and to the south
with the seabreeze.

Current forecast is on track and no changes needed at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A smattering of showers and thunderstorms developed today under
weakness aloft and surface boundary moving into the region.
Thankfully rain-cooled air mass kept temperatures generally in
check; most areas have topped out in the upper 80s to around 90
with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100F.

The frontal boundary slides south tonight, ushering in slightly
drier air by tomorrow. This should assist with keeping temps
around 90F tomorrow and upper 80s to around 90 on Wednesday. The
front will be the focus of shower and thunderstorm development
each afternoon in the short term period. However, high pressure
ridges down into the region late Tuesday into Wednesday and will
start suppressing convection more and more each day. PoPs Tuesday
afternoon will range 30 to 50 percent and only 20 to 30 Wednesday.

The drying trend will also impact temperatures and heat indices.
Heat indices will range within the 90s each day: mid to upper 90s
Tuesday and low to mid 90s Wednesday.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Strong high pressure shifts east into the eastern third of the
country by late next week. As a result, daytime highs will peak
Friday/Saturday in the middle 90s with increasing onshore flow by
the weekend.

As the weekend and early next week approaches, moisture could round
the western periphery of the high pressure and move into the
central GoM. This would bring widespread showers/storms to the
region with the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding.

Uncertainty remains high from run to run, but overall ensemble
forecasts continue to show higher probabilities of heavier rain.

In the interest of rumor suppression, it continues to be worth
mentioning that there has been no consistent guidance indicating
tropical cyclone development at this time. That said, the wave will
have the potential to become a flash flood threat across parts of
the gulf coast by next weekend and early next week.

78

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Although a few showers remain across the forecast area, shower
activity is not expected to affect any terminals through the
night. Mainly just left over convective debris in the form of mid
and high level clouds with light winds are expected with VFR
conditions.

With daytime heating and interaction with the seabreeze, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to form after 11/18z,
mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor. Therefore, VCTS will
be in place at all terminals, with the exception of KAEX, to
account for this.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A weak surface frontal boundary will move down into coastal waters
resulting in light variable winds and increased rain chances.
Expect much of the same Tuesday and Wednesday with diurnal showers
and thunderstorms and variable winds. The front washes out towards
the end of the work week and a return to dry conditions and
southerly flow due to high pressure developing aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  89  66  89 /  10  10   0  10
LCH  74  90  71  89 /  20  40  10  30
LFT  74  92  72  92 /  20  40  10  30
BPT  74  92  73  91 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...07