Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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729 FXUS64 KLCH 090845 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Early morning sfc analysis shows the area under the influence of high pressure centered over the sern CONUS and ridging wwd, maintaining a srly low-level flow. Water vapor imagery mid/upper- level ridging centered roughly overhead at the moment. Sfc obs indicate some lower cloud cover beginning to develop, otherwise generally clear skies are in place over the region. Local 88Ds remain PPINE. The ridging aloft is expected to maintain one last rain-free day today although shortwave energy passing to our north is progged to begin breaking it down. Along with increasing cloud cover on the good onshore low-level flow. wouldn`t be shocked to see an afternoon shower or two developing over our TX zones given the better moisture and less capping forecasted over that area. Otherwise expecting another warm day across the forecast area, especially cntl LA where more highs in the mid 90s are anticipated. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s, max apparent temps are forecast to just nudge their way into triple digits again today. Rain chances return to the area tomorrow as troffing over the ern 1/3 of the country shunts the ridge farther swwd into Mexico. Furthermore, a sfc frontal system is progged to slip swd into the forecast area. Add daytime heating and continued good moisture (forecast soundings indicate mean RH values in the 60 to 70 percent range and PWAT values to 1.9 inches which is roughly the 90th percentile per SPC climo) to the front and lack of capping, looks like scattered showers/storms are in the offing and expected to linger into the evening hours before dissipating with loss of heating. Tuesday appears to be another day of scattered convection across the area as the front stalls over the coastal waters and another disturbance aloft sweeps into the region. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An unseasonable quasistationary frontal boundary is expected to be sitting somewhere near the coast or just offshore Wednesday morning. Compared to this time yesterday, guidance is depicting some modestly drier air to be in place across the region with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s which may be noticeable given the recent spate of mid to upper 70 dewpoints across the region over the last few days. Unlikely to be noticed are any appreciable change in daily mins and maxes which are still expected to remain in the mid 70s and lower 90s respectively through the end of the week. The proximity of the stalled surface front and an upper level low progressing Southeast from Oklahoma to the coast will support widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but these are not expected to make it into the overnight hours. Operational models are trending drier Thursday and Friday as they depict drier mid and upper level air wrapping into the region around the western side of a weak tropical disturbance moving into the eastern gulf. However, ensembles are much more divided and latest NBM continues to paint scattered convection across the region both afternoons. Opted to stick with that for the time being, but if the drier trend continues, will likely lower PoPs late in the week with future packages. The weekend remains highly dependent on the trajectory of the aforementioned gulf disturbance. As of now, the vast majority of moisture and precip looks to remain from the Mississippi gulf coast eastward, but some guidance does indicate a more westward track across the central gulf that would result in increasing PoPs across south central Louisiana. Regardless of the exact track of the low, it is worth mentioning explicitly that, as of now, there has been no reliable guidance indicating that this disturbance will develop into anything more than an enhanced rain maker for portions of the gulf next weekend. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Only significant change since the previous TAF package was to include the mention of fog at LFT and ARA later tonight/near sunrise. Guidance is still hitting on fog more so at other sites but there is at least some agreement with fog moving into Acadiana prior to sunrise, so went ahead and added tempo groups to account for this. Otherwise, no changes with light winds and VFR conditions prevailing. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A mainly light onshore flow is expected to linger into Monday when a frontal passage is forecast, which will usher in another brief shot of light/variable flow on the coastal waters...as of now, not seeing any headlines on the CWF anywhere during the forecast period. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 94 73 90 68 / 0 0 30 10 LCH 91 75 91 73 / 0 0 40 10 LFT 95 76 93 74 / 0 0 50 10 BPT 92 76 93 74 / 10 0 40 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...17