Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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270 FXUS64 KLCH 071713 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1213 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a large ridge across the SW states into W TX, with an embedded disturbance over the TX panhandle. Northerly flow on the periphery of the ridge was bringing much drier air over the region. Recent LAPS Layer PW analysis and GOES TPW shows precipitable water down to 1.2-1.3 inches across the area early this morning (near the 25th percentile per SPC climatology). Surface analysis shows a weak ridge extending southward over the area. This was providing a light northerly flow, although temperatures remain relatively warm and humid (pretty much expected for early June), with temperatures in the middle 70s to near 80 and dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. The weather pattern is finally shifting away from the persistent rounds of showers and storms over the last couple of weeks to a much warmer and drier one for the next few days, with highs into the lower to middle 90s. At this time, heat advisories are not expected, but heat index values could climb to near 100 this afternoon and between 100 and 105 degrees Saturday and Sunday. Beyond this weekend, rain chances are expected to return by early next week as another disturbance and surface front move into the region. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The ridge aloft will build further east across TX today, shifting toward the northern Gulf through the weekend, with its position more or less directly overhead on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure to the north of the area will drift toward the southeast states, with winds becoming southerly on Saturday. Drier air and subsidence associated with the ridge aloft will suppress rain chances while allowing for considerable warming during today and Saturday. A few locations in SE TX could reach the upper 90s each afternoon. Sufficient mixing should keep dewpoints from becoming too oppressive, and thus limit heat index values to sub-advisory criteria. That said, those sensitive or unaccustomed to the heat should use caution during outdoor activities and drink plenty of water. By Sunday, the core of the ridge will shift further southeast. Slightly above normal temperatures are again expected, but not quite as hot as the previous days. A gradual increase in moisture will occur, and a few diurnally forced showers or storms will be possible mainly across the Acadiana region. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Long term guidance solutions begin to vary in their handling of a series of northern stream shortwaves near the US/Canadian border early in the week, lending lower than average confidence to this portion of the forecast. A general consensus suggests that energy will dig across the northern US or Great Lakes region, helping to weaken the ridge over the area. The GFS and its ensembles have trended toward a more progressive pattern, with a stronger shortwave digging across the central US that could propel a front through the region, but this solution appears to be an outlier compared with other global models/ensembles. The NBM remains consistent with its previous runs and better aligned with the non-GFS solutions, especially beyond Monday. At this time, the ridge is expected to weaken considerably by Monday, allowing a series of weak disturbances to affect the region early next week. The development of shortwaves along the Canadian border will help push another cold front southward into the area on Monday, potentially stalling near the coast. Increasing moisture and forcing along the boundary should bring at least some scattered PoPs to the region on Monday. The increase in clouds and showers will keep temperatures in check with temperatures likely only reaching the upper 80s to around 90. Beyond Monday, non-GFS solutions suggest the weak boundary will meander near the coast. Aloft, ridging will become re-established west of the area. Another shortwave is expected to traverse the northeast edge of the ridge, moving toward the lower MS Valley by Wednesday into Thursday. This should provide enough support for scattered showers and storms each afternoon, but overall coverage will likely be dictated by the position of both the surface boundary and the trough aloft. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 High pressure ridge developing over the region has resulted in few to no clouds and light, semi-variable winds. Expect this pattern to prevail through the TAF period. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Light offshore winds this morning will veer around to an onshore direction tonight as surface high pressure north of the region shifts toward the southeastern US. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will then persist into early next week, becoming somewhat variable as a weak front stalls near the coast. At this time, no headlines are anticipated for the coastal waters zones. Dry weather is expected to prevail through the weekend, with rain chances increasing early next week. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 92 68 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 93 73 92 75 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 95 73 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 95 74 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...11