824
FXUS64 KLCH 120421
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Numerous boundary collisions and cell mergers over portions of
southeast Texas this evening that has lead to heavy rain bursts
with instantaneous rainfall rates up to 5 inches per hour with
ground truth gages that have reported to us up to at least 4 inch
in total.

Activity is expected to gradually diminish by midnight and have
updated grids to reflect this.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)

Wx map shows weak surface high over the Eastern U.S. giving our
region northeast winds around 5-10 mph. Temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Dewpoint gradient across the I-10/U.S. 190
corridors with mid 70s to the south, and mid to upper 60s to the
north across Central Louisiana where the drier air resides. Radar
showing the scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coastal
parishes and counties. Latest short term guidance showed slightly
lower chances, and locations closer to the coast to receive this
afternoon`s round of precipitation.

For tonight, expect most of the activity to diminish by sunset,
with no precip expected inland. Offshore, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop by daybreak along the frontal boundary,
which is expected to be near the coast, or near coastal waters by
then. For the remainder of Wednesday, expect most of the showers
and thunderstorms to remain either in the coastal waters, with low
chances 20% along the coastal parishes/counties.

Low chances of precipitation is expected Wednesday night through
Thursday night as the slightly drier air at the surface and aloft
prevails. With the dry air in place, overnight lows in the lower
to mid 60s north of I-10, upper 60s to near 70 elsewhere. Afternoon
high temperatures Thursday expected to increase into the mid 90s.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)

High pressure aloft will be centered over southern New Mexico by the
end of the week, however the ridge is expected to extend into East
TX and LA. High pressure at the surface is anticipated to be centered
over the Smokey Mtn NP which will cause a roughly northeast flow
locally. While high temperatures will likely be slightly above
normal for the date, lows may fall to or just below normal due to a
northeast flow dragging in slightly lower dewpoints. The ridge aloft
is also expected to keep showers and storms suppressed for Friday.

Saturday and Sunday the upper ridge will gradually slide east across
the gulf coastal states to the Atlantic. An inverted trough over the
eastern gulf is anticipated to slip west around the southern
periphery of the ridge aloft then be pulled northwest across the
west to northwest gulf coast. This will increase moisture locally
through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to perhaps
numerous showers will become possible Sunday afternoon an linger
through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

With the loss of daytime heating, conditions are becoming more
stable with basically just mid and high level clouds from
convective debris. VFR conditions are expected to continue through
the night.

On Wednesday, old surface boundary will be draped across the area
mainly along I-10 with northeast flow bringing in drier air for
the most part. Only terminal where VCTS is mentioned is KBPT after
12/20z, as interaction from daytime heating and seabreeze will
allow for a chance of thunderstorms.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...

Expect a light northerly flow to develop as a weak frontal boundary
slips south tonight and Wednesday. The front is forecast to meander
over the coastal waters for the next couple of days and dissipate.
Expect southerly flow to develop by Friday, and remain for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  89  63  91 /   0  10   0   0
LCH  71  91  70  92 /  20  30   0  10
LFT  72  92  69  92 /  10  30   0  10
BPT  74  92  73  94 /  60  30   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...07