Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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741 FXUS64 KLCH 201742 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1242 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Hot and dry conditions to continue through the short term. A ridge aloft is over the southern plains and northwest gulf coast this morning while weak high pressure at the surface is stretched over the mid Mississippi Valley and northern gulf. This will produce yet another day with warm temperatures with very little chance for rain. The chance is not zero, but very unlikely at any given point. Winds will be light. During the weekend the ridge aloft will gradually shift east and be roughly overhead Sunday. No real changes in the forecast are anticipated day to day from today through Sunday. The only noticeable change will be the surface ridge moving to the Atlantic coast. This will allow a modest increase in southerly flow. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The long range continues dry with above normal diurnal temperature trending in the lower 90s to start off the work week Monday. Slack upper level flow above the Gulf will allow broad ridging to extend to the surface with light southerlies in place. Therefore, dry conditions can be anticipated for the better part of the area. The case remains the same Tuesday with the exception of slightly higher signals for some low level moisture convergence which could squeeze out a few afternoon isolated thunderstorms. Meanwhile, a shortwave trof over the Four Corners regions becomes more positive oriented as the northern portion of the wave elongates into the Ohio Valley through Wednesday morning driving a cold front southward across the plains toward the Gulf Coast. Winds will shift northerly and keep north to northeast components through the remainder of the forecast. A very large area of subsidence builds above the Rocky Mountains in response to the aforementioned trof evolution. By Thursday, the frontal pattern shifts offshore, although there is not significant amount of cold air advection expected. Further to this, the strength of the frontal pattern is far from resolved, so adjustments to this pattern near the tail end of the outlook as it relates to troughing that is forecast to slowly deepen in the southern Gulf and Central America are not out of the realm of possibilities. That said, a slight lowering trend toward more climatological norms in the mid the upper 80s is expected through the mid week. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions will continue for most of the TAF period with clear skies and light winds. Around 09Z to 14Z patchy fog will be forming across the coastal terminals, especially at ARA and LFT where visibility may drop to IFR/LIFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 High pressure situated over the region will continue a trend of hot, dry and clear conditions with 1 to 2 foot seas through the weekend. Early next week, a frontal system developing over the central US will tighten the pressure gradient, bringing about elevated winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 75 92 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 75 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 76 93 74 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...14