Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
886 FXUS65 KLKN 042010 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 110 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge over the southwest U.S. continues to strengthen midweek, keeping the drier weather as well as increasing warmer temperatures. Thursday, the upper level ridge is expected to head east, allowing zonal southwest flow to return for northern Nevada along with some moisture, increasing the chances for some isolated showers and thunderstorms, however central Nevada south of US-50 is expected to remain dry and warm. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Warming trend continues as the upper level ridge strengthens over the southwestern U.S. increasing temperatures as highs Wednesday are expected at 80-90 degrees. Low temperatures are also expected to increase with tonight in the 50s and by Wednesday evening, into the 50s-60s. Light winds expected each day with speeds below 10 mph. .LONG TERM...Thursday through next Monday. The upper level ridge axis will slide east on Thursday. The resulting southwest flow will allow for some mid-level moisture to move into northern and central Nevada. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. Storm speeds look to be around 10-20kt for Thursday afternoon so some of the thunderstorms could be dry. Any storms that form would have the potential for gusty and erratic outflow winds from collapsing storms. Highs will be quite warm with above normal readings in the 90s. Some high temperature may be tied or broken. Look for partly cloudy skies during the overnight with showers ending. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s. The upper ridge will continue shifting east and will be somewhere in Texas on Friday. Moisture will continue to reside over northern and central Nevada with precipitable water values at or above 0.65 inches. Expecting another round of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across locations north of and including US Highway 50. Storm motion will be around 10 to 20 knots. Highs will be warm once again with temperatures in the 90s. This could be another day where record high temperatures could be set. Some evening activity is possible in northeastern Nevada during the overnight and lows will be in the 50s. Convective activity will continue through the weekend with the highest chances over northeastern Nevada. Winds will be breezy each afternoon with gusts to 20-25 mph. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s each afternoon with lows in the 50s. Some leftover showers are possible in northeast Elko county by Monday with highs in the 80s and 90s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals for the 24-hour forecast period. Relatively light today, generally less than 10KT, though occasional gusts of 15-20KT possible for a few hours after 18Z/Wed afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures expected to continue to rise to well above normal through Wednesday as the upper level ridge strengthens over the region. Light winds and dry weather expected overnight and through Wednesday. Thursday, increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms as the upper level ridge begins to move east. && .HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows expected to continue in some areas of streams and rivers from the seasonal snowmelt. Increasing temperatures are expected to increase the rate of snowmelt from the remaining snow on mountain tops. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the latter half of the week could produce wetting rain over the remaining snowpack. The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain remains in action stage and is forecasted to slowly rise but remain in action stage for the next several days. Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations in height. Overall trend continues to see an increase with minor flooding possible by mid to late next week as temperatures continue to rise above normal. Jarbidge River is forecast to remain in action stage over the next few days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 97/86/86/97