074
FXUS65 KLKN 121951
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1251 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A quick moving upper level trough will bring low
chances at some scattered shower and thunderstorms for Monday and
Tuesday, before quieter weather moves in for the remainder of the
week. Another system may affect the region for the weekend but
uncertainty remains high with this possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Sunday and Monday

Upper level ridging will slowly shift east tonight as a quick
moving upper level trough looks to transit the Pacific NW. For the
remainder of tonight and into Monday morning a weak upper ridge
axis will continue to shift eastward toward the Colorado Plateau.
As evident in satellite imagery, and has been the usual the last
few days, cumulus clouds are building in the mid levels as weak
instability remains trapped by upper level subsidence from the
ridge. This will begin to change Monday afternoon as quick moving
yet weak upper level trough will transit the Pacific NW Monday
through Tuesday morning. This system will push a cold front
through NE Nevada Monday evening through Tuesday which will serve
as a focus for a 10% to 30% chance at some scattered hit or miss
showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. However, this front
will mostly serve as a wind shift boundary as temperature behind
the front wont be much cooler. Apart from the trapped mid level
moisture, this system will have meager lower level moisture to
work with. The best chances for showers look to be across northern
Elko county Monday afternoon, and across the US-50 corridor as
the front stalls out and eventually dissipates Tuesday. Amounts
will be light, and not every one will see moisture, but up to
0.10 of rain could be received under stronger showers.
Temperatures will remain above average running in the low 70 to
low 80s for highs and dropping into the low 40s to low 50s for
overnight lows. Winds will light out of the WNW tonight, Monday
morning ahead of the front winds will be more westerly at 10 to 20
MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH. Monday evening when the front pushes
through winds will shift back to the NW at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts
up to 30 MPH possible.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.

AN upper-level disturbance and weak cold front will be pushing
through northeastern Nevada Tuesday. The main focus area for
convection will be across far eastern and central Nevada primarily
south of US-50. Chances of appreciable rain remain quite low less
than 10% of reaching or exceeding one tenth of an inch
accumulation. Gusty northwest winds behind the cold front will
impact northeastern Nevada with afternoon breezes of 15-20
mph. Temperatures will be only a couple of degrees cooler and
still reach into the 70s, approaching 80 in some valleys.

Benign weather conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday
remaining dry although afternoon winds will be noticeable each
day. Winds will start out from the north at 10-20 mph Wednesday
becoming northwest Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be warm
in the 70s and lower 80s with lows in the 40s and some lower 50s.

Forecast uncertainty is still quite high regarding the weekend
weather pattern evolution. Ensemble cluster analysis shows a
larger spread and thus lower confidence in strength and position
of upper-trough over the west over the weekend. Only 15-20% chance
of rain is currently expected Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
Also, the overall set up of the long-wave pattern tends to limit
moisture transport into the Great Basin reducing at least
probabilities of significant rainfall. Temperatures should fall a
few degrees over the weekend owing to some cloud cover and lower
500 mb heights but still reach into the 70s with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with
light winds of 5KT to 15KT at all terminals. Cumulus build-ups
will develop this afternoon with a few residual mid-level clouds
through tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected
Tuesday afternoon across eastern Nevada including near KEKO and
KELY but probability of any rain is still 20% at best. Chance of
TS is even lower at KEKO Tuesday around 5% and 15% at KELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams,
creeks, and rivers throughout northern Nevada due to seasonal
snow melt. Warm temperatures in the low 70 to low 80s will start
to erode the higher elevation snow pack, but overnight temperature
will be cool enough to keep the melting from progressing to fast.

The Humboldt River at Comus is in action stage and is forecast to
remain in action stage for the next few days.

Other rivers and creeks that are showing signs of increased flows
are Lamoille Creek and the Jarbidge River. Though stream gage
heights are not at bankfull stage, these streams are flowing fast
and cold. With the warm temperatures expected this week, these
stream heights will continue rising.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

98/93/93/98