114
FXUS64 KLUB 060757
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
257 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The upper pattern isn`t much to write about this morning as a broad
dome of high pressure jostles east toward New Mexico resulting in
rising heights and anemic northwest flow over much of our area. The
lower levels meanwhile turn more interesting thanks to a fetch of
moist southerlies aiding in PWATs around 130 percent of normal and a
weak cold front forecast to settle near I40 later this afternoon.
The airmass along and immediately south of this front should become
moderately to strongly unstable later this afternoon with MLCAPEs
pushing 2000-3000 J/kg under negligible capping. With highs near or
just above the century mark, convective temps should have little
trouble in garnering storm development near the front. Given ample
DCAPEs of nearly 2000 J/kg from inverted-V profiles and 30-40
knots of deep layer shear, constructive outflows should fuel some
degree of upscale growth into an MCS that tracks south over much
of our forecast area late this afternoon and evening. One factor
that may help sustain convection after sunset is a modest theta-e
ridge and LLJ expanding over the South Plains in response to low-
level winds backing SE and moistening. NBM`s PoPs remain too soft
for this otherwise favorable setup, so precip chances were raised
across the board. Severe mention was added to our northern two
rows of counties where linear modes are most likely with an
attendant threat for downbursts. Even as storms inevitably wane
overnight, convective debris should blanket much of the region and
keep lows on the mild side.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Triple digit high temperatures will continue Friday and Saturday as
a ~592dam H5 ridge remains centered over Texas and fairly robust
surface troughing to our north results in strong southerly surface
flow. Although deep mixing will result in a relatively dry surface
airmass both Friday and Saturday afternoons preventing daytime
storm development locally, several shortwaves transiting along the
top of the upper ridge will result in convection over northeast
NM and the TX Panhandle which may sneak southward into our area
during the evening. The potential for this is low on Friday, but
increases on Saturday evening as an outflow-enhanced cool front
may serve as a focus for convection to spread a bit further into
the South Plains region. Behind this front and any Saturday
evening storms, temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday and
especially Monday as the core of ridging aloft shifts to our south
and a more unsettled upper pattern takes shape. Most guidance now
shows a few fairly substantial shortwave disturbances transiting
over our area within quasi-zonal to northwest flow aloft during
the early week period, which would result in much better chances
for showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. For now,
model spread requires PoPs to remain broad-brushed in both space
and time through much of the early week period, but storm chances
look to remain highest during the evening/overnight hours. The
pattern then trends warmer and drier during the middle of next
week as another upper ridge builds overhead in advance of a
Pacific cutoff low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR with chances for TS by early evening at CDS and PVW. This
activity may drift south to LBB toward sunset, although most
indications are for TS to be dissipating by this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93