Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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028 FXUS64 KLUB 171932 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 232 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The convective forecast for the rest of the afternoon and this evening remains largely on track from the previous forecast. A large trough in western North America will be punctuated by a strong short wave trough moving out of the central Rockies today into the Central and Northern Plains. Unfortunately, we will be at the very southern end of lift associated this this short wave as it ejects out onto the Plains as it increasingly takes on a negative tilt. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue to blossom over eastern New Mexico over the next several hours as lift spreads over the region. As the aforementioned short wave moves onto the Plains, a 250mb jet streak will remain from Arizona through New Mexico continuing to supply lift over eastern New Mexico into the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Low level convergence within a surface pressure trough will also complement the large scale ascent and the development of convection in eastern New Mexico through the evening. Instability will continue to grow this afternoon topping out around 1500 J/kg within the mixed layer from eastern New Mexico into the western South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle. However, this instability will quickly wane this evening limiting the eastward extent of convective activity. With the decreasing lift the farther eastward you go, thunderstorm activity will be hard pressed to reach the I-27/US87 corridor especially over the southern South Plains. There will be higher chances of activity reaching this corridor in the extreme southern Texas Panhandle late this evening. Given the amount of expected instability and increasing shear through the afternoon, some storms will have the potential to be severe. The primary threat will be strong to severe wind gusts in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle with relatively dry sub-cloud layers. Chances for convection are more uncertain for Wednesday afternoon in the wake of this intense short wave for today. We will see continued southwest flow aloft but with rising heights. Large scale ascent will be absent on Wednesday afternoon but the surface pressure trough/dryline will be dragged farther to the east over the South Plains. Low level convergence will therefore be more squarely overhead. Instability will be weaker on Wednesday but is expected to be uncapped which may bring isolated convection. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The upper trough in the western US is expected to eject eastward into the Plains over the weekend. As it gets closer...after very low rain chances Thursday, we should see a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday. The greatest rain chances should be on the order of only 20 to 40 percent over the southern Panhandle and northern South Plains. We should see a slight cooling trend over the weekend along with the increased moisture and highs should back off 90s to near 100 Thursday to mostly 80s by Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Thunderstorms are expected west of KLBB and KPVW this evening with a small chance of reaching the terminals late this evening. However, chances are low of this activity reaching KLBB with slightly higher chances of reaching KPVW. Otherwise, VFR is anticipated at all TAF sites. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...01