629
FXUS64 KLZK 030857
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
357 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Messaging remains the same today as we approach Independence Day,
with hazardous heat and humidity staying in place over the FA
through at least Thurs aftn. For now, most areas wl be under a heat
advisory or an excessive heat warning, with air temps topping out in
the upper 90s to triple digits, and heat index values in excess of
105 to 110 degrees.

Thru the day today, a weak trailing cdfrnt, extending acrs the
Midwest and Great Lakes regions and into Cntrl Canada wl be moving
S/Ewrd towards the Ozark Plateau. Most recent CAM guidance has been
consistent on incrsg covg of convective activity along this frnt, w/
initiation expected later on this evng, primarily over Srn MO to Nrn
AR. Weak vertical shear is expected to be in place, generally 30 kts
or less, along w/ modest buoyancy, which wl support some isolated
organized storm potential. Hail and damaging winds are the primary
hazards expected.

Thurs, Independence Day, a rinse and repeat pattern is expected, w/
sultry heat and humidity across the Natural state. With coordination
of neighboring offices, have gone ahead and issued heat headlines
for the entirety of the FA on Thurs, including heat advisories over
the N/Wrn portion of the state, and excessive heat warnings over the
S/Ern half of the state, including the Little Rock metro area.
Upgrades and expansion of the excessive heat warning on Thursday is
likely, but timing of afternoon PoPs currently hinders higher
confidence of current hazard coverage.

For those celebrating the holiday outside or heading off to an
outdoor show, being mindful of hazardous heat wl be important to
keep the celebration going! Stay well-hydrated, take breaks inside,
and know the signs of heat-related illnesses. Some positive news for
heat, though not necessarily for outdoor celebrations, wl be incrsg
chcs for rain and storms acrs Nrn to Cntrl AR on Thurs aftn to evng.
A stronger cdfrnt, driven by an H500 shortwave over the Midwest, is
expected to move thru the Cntrl Plains towards the Srn US by Thurs
night. Covg and magnitude of rain is expected to be greater acrs Nrn
AR initially Thurs evng, and expand towards Cntrl to Srn AR towards
the later evng to overnight hours.

Some stronger storms may be possible acrs Nrn AR initially, where
overlap of buoyancy and weak, but ample vertical shear will lie.
Hail and damaging wind gusts remain the primary hazards on Thurs
again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The pattern will be in the process of changing in the long term,
with the end of oppressive heat. A ridge of high pressure over the
southern United States will be in the process of slowly buckling
over the middle of the country. This will happen as a trough
deepens, and ridging is forced toward the southwest United States
and the southeast. A west/northwest flow aloft will drive a cold
front through much of the region on Friday. The front will be
accompanied by scattered showers/thunderstorms, followed by slightly
cooler/drier and more seasonal air.

It appears the front will wash out in or just south of the area this
weekend. Any precipitation will become more spotty. During this time
frame, seasonal temperatures are expected.

Heading into early next week, another cold front will arrive from
the Plains on Monday. Just like its predecessor, it appears the
front will stall across Arkansas, most likely in central/southern
sections of the state. At the same time, the remnants of tropical
system Beryl will be well to our south, and moisture surrounding the
system may come into play locally. Have hit/miss thunderstorms
mentioned Monday/Tuesday, especially during the afternoon/early
evening. In addition to some much needed rain, the other good news
is that temperatures will remain seasonal/not so hot.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR condns are expected to persist thru the PD, w/ winds settling
out overnight Tues night. Main story on Wed wl be development of
TS acrs Nrn AR along an advancing cdfrnt, though confidence on
covg remains low attm. Kept mentions of VCTS at Nrn terminals w/
this set of TAFs, and additional refinement of convective activity
is expected. Otherwise, area-wide Srly winds should resume on Wed
aftn.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     98  77  96  74 /  30  20  40  60
Camden AR        100  78  98  76 /  10  10  20  20
Harrison AR       96  73  96  69 /  40  20  40  60
Hot Springs AR    99  78  98  75 /  10  10  20  40
Little Rock   AR  99  80  98  78 /  10  10  30  40
Monticello AR     99  79  97  78 /  10  10  30  20
Mount Ida AR      98  76  97  72 /  10  10  20  40
Mountain Home AR  95  74  95  71 /  40  30  50  60
Newport AR        98  78  96  76 /  20  20  40  50
Pine Bluff AR     99  79  97  77 /  10  10  20  30
Russellville AR   99  78  98  75 /  10  10  20  50
Searcy AR         99  77  97  75 /  10  10  40  50
Stuttgart AR      97  80  95  78 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-
053>057-062>069-113-121>123-130-137-138-212-213-230-238-313.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ004>006-014-
015-024-031-039-052-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-
212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for
ARZ007-008-016-017-025-032>034-042>047-053>057-062>069.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ052-103-112-140-141-203-221>223-237-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...72