857
FXUS64 KMAF 090547
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

WV imagery shows the upper ridge has shifted clear across Texas to
the Louisiana coast this afternoon, allowing the Baja trough to move
inland to the Gulf of California.  However, this is having nor
effect on afternoon highs, which should come in ~ 10F above normal.
Diurnally-driven orographic convection is trying to develop invof
the Davis Mountains, w/hi-res models expanding this over most of
the higher terrain by late afternoon, after which it will diminish
after sundown.  With any luck, the drought-stricken higher terrain
will get some much-needed rainfall.  Of course, the downside to this
will be fire starts from lightning, as what little fuels we have are
dry.

Tonight, despite a 35+ kt LLJ cranking up, convection will diminish
by 06Z.  This, and plenty of debris cloud will retard radiational
cooling, resulting in yet another unseasonably warm night of lows 10-
12F above normal.

Sunday, the Baja trough opens and moves to northern Chihuahua by 00Z
Monday.  To the northeast, a cold front will approach the CWA.  CAMs
develop convection during the afternoon along the front, and the
incoming Baja trough will only exacerbate this.  Steep mid-level
lapse rates will be in place for all but the northeast, and deep-
layer shear over the northeastern zones will render a severe threat.
The northern zones will also see a little cooling invof the front,
but for the rest of us, highs will be very similar to today`s, if
not a degree or so warmer with a little pre-frontal compressional
warming thrown into the mix.

Sunday night, the Baja trough moves through West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico.  Models develop a MCS just north of the CWA, driving the
front south to the border by 12Z Monday.  This will increase chances
of rain across the area, especially north.  60+F surface dewpoints
are expected as far west as the Guadalupes, increasing pwats to over
3 std devs above normal.  NAM forecast soundings increase pwat at
KMAF to 1.87" by 06Z Monday, which is well over the max of 1.53" and
mean of 1.01".  This will likely translate to locally heavy rainfall
northeast.  This rain, and the front, should bring a little relief
to the unseasonably warm nights of late, knocking at least 5F off of
tonight`s temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Monday has gradually trended a bit more interesting as we draw
closer in time to the day. An upper trough will be positioned
across northeastern New Mexico while a few notable boundaries will
be situated in our area. The first is a remnant outflow boundary
caused by Sunday`s convection with the other being the cold front
set to move through Sunday evening/overnight. It is still uncertain
whether these two boundaries will merger together or where they will
be positioned come Monday afternoon but this will largely dictates
how Monday shakes out. Overall, there will be modest instability
with the largest axis of CAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) expected to set up
just south of the cold front where some moisture pooling occurs.
This paired with boundary interactions, diurnal heating, and some
synoptic aid from the nearby trough, should be enough to get a few
storms going. Any storms that form will have 30+ kts of bulk shear
to work on with some low-level directional shear as well (especially
near the boundaries). With this, nearly all modes of severe weather
will be possible, so this is surely something to keep an eye on over
the next day or so. Between the cold front, plus added cloud
cover/precipitation, Monday looks to be the "coolest" day of the
long term with highs largely in the upper 80s for the Permian Basin
and in the 90s/100s elsewhere.

Beyond Monday, the pattern re-settles back into a quieter setup with
northwesterly flow on Tuesday giving way to a building ridge set to
control our weather for the second half of the week. The main
highlight here is the rapid return of the heat for Tuesday, followed
by a steady warming trend that could have widespread 100-110+ degree
high temperatures for Thursday-Saturday with Thursday likely set to
be the hottest day of the week. While good low level moisture
remains in place through the week, the subsidence from the upper
ridging limits low storm chances to the elevated heat sources of the
Davis Mountains and western higher terrain each afternoon.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Lingering showers and associated outflow boundaries have produced
some variable and gusty winds this evening, but overall, winds
will settle out of the south to southeast tonight and then shift
to the north/northeast Sunday morning at all but FST/PEQ, where
southwesterly to westerly winds are more likely. Winds will remain
elevated and intermittently gusty through the period. A round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop around 21Z over
SE NM, thus have included VCTS mention at CNM and HOB. Convection
will move eastward, and given confidence is a bit higher for
impacts at MAF toward 10/00Z, have included VCTS mention there,
too. Erratic gusty winds and lightning could accompany any storm,
along with MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain. Outside of storms,
VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  69  88  69 /  20  60  40  30
Carlsbad                101  68  92  67 /  20  40  30  20
Dryden                  103  74  95  72 /  10  10  30  20
Fort Stockton           105  70  95  71 /  10  20  40  20
Guadalupe Pass           92  64  86  67 /  10  30  30  20
Hobbs                    99  64  88  64 /  30  50  40  30
Marfa                    97  59  93  59 /  10  10  40  10
Midland Intl Airport    101  69  88  69 /  20  40  40  20
Odessa                  101  69  89  70 /  20  40  40  20
Wink                    106  71  94  71 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...84