Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 222018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222018
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-222215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0896
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Areas affected...Southern Indiana into north-central Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 222018Z - 222215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Damaging winds and large hail are possible with storms
that develop along the cold front. Timing of development and storm
coverage are not certain. A watch is possible this afternoon as
convective trends warrant.
DISCUSSION...Heating behind earlier convection associated with an
MCV has allowed the airmass ahead of the cold front to destabilize.
Cumulus along the front have become more vertically developed,
particularly in southeastern Indiana. Winds are quite veered in the
vicinity of the front and convergence is weak. Some modest mid-level
ascent from the Upper Midwest shortwave trough may be needed to
initiate thunderstorms later this afternoon. Other than timing,
storm coverage is somewhat uncertain as well. Storms that do develop
will be capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail. A watch is
possible this afternoon, but timing and spatial extent are not
clear.
..Wendt/Hart.. 05/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 38768456 38608497 38208666 38478660 39258571 41218381
41558327 41388189 40208200 39348314 38898394 38768456