564
ACUS11 KWNS 221037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221037
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-221230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0888
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221037Z - 221230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development is forecast to increase over the next
couple of hours, with a few stronger storms likely to evolve with
time.  Risk for large hail is expected with a few of the strongest
cells, which could require eventual consideration of WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated convection just
beginning to develop across parts of Oklahoma, supporting consistent
signal in successive HRRR runs that an early-morning convective
event will evolve across the Oklahoma vicinity.  The convection
appears to be occurring near the 850mb manifestation of the
low-level baroclinic zone, as air ascends isentropically atop to the
boundary to its LFC.

Model data indicates abundant CAPE atop a surface-based stable layer
north of the surface baroclinic zone, that currently stretches from
near RUE (Russellville AR) southwestward to near MEZ (Mena AR), and
then west-southwestward across southern Oklahoma to near FDR
(Frederick, OK).  Given the thermodynamic support, expect a few
vigorous updrafts to evolve, with intensity/organization aided by
slightly veering/steadily increasing southwesterly flow with height
through the cloud-bearing layer.  Given this potential for a few
elevated supercells, attendant risk for large hail is expected to
evolve.  While likely to remain isolated, storms could become
sufficient in coverage to warrant potential WW issuance in the 1 to
2 hour time frame.

..Goss/Edwards.. 05/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34809941 35149913 36389702 36809504 36549382 36039338
            35159403 34469665 34459857 34809941