374
ACUS11 KWNS 222308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222308
TXZ000-230115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...Central and East Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 286...

Valid 222308Z - 230115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 286 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large
hail will continue for a few more hours across parts of central and
east Texas. As the severe threat moves toward the eastern edge of WW
286, a local extension or new watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Fort Worth
shows a small cluster of intense storms in the northern Texas Hill
Country, in Lampasas, Coryell, and McLennan counties. Multiple
supercells are ongoing, and one of the storms has had a persistent
circulation. This cluster of storms will continue to move eastward
into a corridor of extreme instability, where MLCAPE is estimated by
the RAP in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. The nearest WSR-88D VWP,
located at Granger, TX has 0-6 km shear of 45 to 50 knots, and 0-3
km storm-relative helicity fluctuating in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range
over the last half hour. This environment should be favorable for
supercells with a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible.
Supercells will also be capable of isolated large hail. Hailstones
of greater than 2 inches in diameter may accompany the most intense
updrafts. Also, radar suggests that damaging winds will be likely
near the strongest downdrafts, and winds could exceed 70 knots
locally.

..Broyles.. 05/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30629884 30829975 31080006 31370011 31669994 31919953
            31999788 31869614 31719559 31489529 31149528 30859538
            30599566 30459616 30449694 30629884