383
FXUS63 KMPX 251144
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend, especially
Sunday when widespread rain is likely across southern MN and western
WI.

- Additional chances of rainfall arrive late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Not much currently on satellite early this morning except for the
band of mid-level stratus over the Dakotas that will advect in from
west to east over Minnesota and Wisconsin throughout the
morning. Currently temperatures are noticeably about 10 degrees
cooler than what they were 24 hours ago. Now that the cold front
has passed, its parent trough will continue to fill in today
and prog northeast into Canada. Meanwhile off to our west near
Colorado and Kansas, our next system is developing and will make
its way eastward. In between these two features, a warm front
is expected to creep into Minnesota today and warm sites into
the low 70s. Breezy 25-30mph wind gusts will hang on for a least
one more day before weakening. It possible that this warm
frontal boundary may interact with weak forcing to generate
scattered showers and some thunder later this afternoon,
especially north of a line that extends from Yellow Medicine up
to Kanabec Counties. As we reach the evening and overnight
hours, the shortwave to our SW will sweep across Iowa into
southern Wisconsin. Rain and some embedded thunder will increase
in coverage and be slow to clear through Sunday morning. Areas
east of the I-35 corridor have a likely chance of seeing
additional scattered showers lingering into Sunday afternoon.
Highs on Sunday will range in mid 60s to low 70s.

Since the last forecast update, it appears that guidance has shifted
this low`s track farther southeast. Hence the decrease in latest
QPF amounts which now range between few tenths to three
quarters of an inch. The highest rainfall totals will remained
focused to southeastern Minnesota and will greatly depend on
forecast track deviation.

Once Sunday`s system clears, broad troughing will be
overhead across the north-central CONUS. A few shortwaves are
forecast to eject off of the primary circulation and generate
additional showers/storms for much of Monday and potentially on
Tuesday. Good news is that Memorial Day does not appear to be a wash
out although some areas could accumulate a few hundredths to a
tenth of an inch of rain. Wednesday will likely be the nicest or
"quietest" day of the week as high pressure keeps any
shortwaves away for at least 24 hours. Beyond there, another
troughing pattern introduces multiple shortwaves providing a
chance of precipitation each day for much of MN/WI.
Temperatures by the end of next week will reach the upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration for
all sites. Cloud coverage will slowly increase from start to
finish, starting as high cirrus clouds that will gradually
develop into ceiling in the 080-120 levels late this afternoon
into this evening. A few showers are possible in west-central MN
late in this TAF period so have included its mention at AXN-STC
with showers moving in from the west, and at MKT with showers
moving in from the south at the tail end of this TAF period.
Chances for more widespread rainfall increase beyond this TAF
period. Winds will generally run SW for much of today into
tonight, eventually backing to easterly during the early
morning hours Sunday, with speeds under 10kts through daybreak,
10-15kts this afternoon, then settling back down tonight into
Sunday.

KMSP...Low level dry air in place is expected to mitigate any
precipitation potential for this evening through early morning
Sunday, but chances will increase for rain during the day
Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind E to NE 10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC