391
FXUS63 KMPX 131139
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
639 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke will be becoming elevated this morning, with improving
  surface conditions.

- A few chances for showers and storms midweek and next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Smoke continues to shroud the Upper Midwest early this morning.
Visibilities are generally in the 3 to 5 mile range. Current
air quality is in the unhealthy category across
central/southern MN and west central WI. However, there is
improvement occurring across northern MN and smoke modeling
continues to shift the near-surface smoke south into Iowa this
morning. Some less dense smoke may remain near the surface
through the day, but generally the greatest concentrations will
become more elevated with time. Given the northwest flow
pattern aloft, waves of smoke will keep skies rather hazy over
the next couple days, and likely periodically for the next few
months as fires spread and new ones form over drought-stricken
Canada.

A weak shortwave trough will swing across the northern Plains
Wednesday. This system won`t have a lot of moisture to work with
and the tongue of moisture will be narrow, but there should be
enough to produce a band of showers Wednesday and Wednesday
evening along the front. Poor lapse rates will limit instability
overall but the more moist forecast soundings do show some
meager CAPE and a thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out if the
quality of moisture turns out a bit better. Cyclonic flow
Thursday will keep hit and miss shower chances going.

Another system over the northern Rockies will advance east next
weekend. West southwest flow will send the EML into the region
while flow improves from the Gulf thanks to ridging over the
east coast. Predictability at this range is poor and there has
been a lot of spread in the guidance. Nevertheless, it could
become more convectively active if the pattern evolves toward
this idea.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Visibilities have taken a bit of a hit with dawn as more light
scattering takes place, so many locations will drop to MVFR
levels and remain there until the smoke lifts later today. AXN
and RWF have recently dropped to IFR (2 1/2SM) which may be a
possibility at other locations as well. Elevated smoke
necessitates a mention of high clouds through the period,
although skies will be largely void of any actual cloud cover.

KMSP...Vis stands at 4SM now, but there`s a possibility it could
drop to 2.5 or 3SM before improving later this morning.
Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR/MVFR, chc PM -SHRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff