172
FXUS65 KMSO 301946
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
146 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...5 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA...LEMHI COUNTY IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

The biggest weather impact in the near term will be occurrence of
thunderstorms across the Northern Rockies throughout the remainder
of today. Southwest Montana and Lemhi County Idaho have a 5 percent
probability of damaging hail (greater than 1 inch diameter) and
damaging wind (60 mph or greater) through sunset this evening.

Otherwise through Independence Day, cool, showery, and breezy
conditions will remain in place across the Northern Rockies. Daytime
temperatures will be running generally 5-10 degrees below the
seasonal average through Thursday.

The next most significant weather impact is anticipated Friday
through the weekend, when 60-70 percent of weather models and their
ensembles suggest a very warm ridge of high pressure moving over the
Northern Rockies. Population centers across the region are projected
to warm 10-20 degrees above the seasonal average (90-105F). Now
would be a good time to ensure that you have a reliable way to avoid
or mitigate the heat. Water, shade, and air circulation are crucial
for avoiding adverse health effects from heat.

&&

.AVIATION...Thunderstorms will be present across the Northern
Rockies air space through 01/0600Z. There is a roughly 50 percent
probability of lightning across northwest/southwest Montana and
over Lemhi County in central Idaho during this time. Also, there
is a 5 percent probability of large hail and thunderstorm wind
gusts exceeding 50 knots for southwest Montana and Lemhi County
Idaho (including KBTM and KSMN). Terrain obscurations from low
ceilings will be common during this time as well. Ceilings will
steadily rise and obscurations lessen significantly after
01/0600Z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$