440
FXUS65 KMSO 260912
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
312 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...The previously discussed anomalous precipitable
waters are clearly visible on Satellite over Nevada and central
Idaho. High clouds will continue to filter into the region this
morning and a few sprinkles or more likely virga showers will be
possible before noon.

Southwest winds will increase around noon and high resolution
models are demonstrating a period of clearing which could be all
that is necessary for convective initiation later in the
afternoon. Currently, west-central MT and north-central ID could
see initiation after 3 pm and those probabilities increase after
6pm. With the rest of the region seeing convective initiation
around 6pm MDT. Initially these showers and storms will be capable
of gusty outflow winds, after the atmosphere moistens up a bit
expect brief but heavy rains and potentially small hail.

Nocturnal convection will be possible over north-central ID and
west-central MT tonight.

Widespread convective precipitation is expected across the region
on Thursday with meager totals. There is a 60 to 70% chance for a
wetting rain, at least 0.10 inch for most, While the Clearwater
Mountains and mountains in west-central MT have a 50 to 60% chance
of receiving 0.25 inch.

Friday precipitation continues along the Continental Divide, while
the rest of us enjoy cooler temperatures, as much as 15 to 20
degrees cooler than today.

Saturday is warmer, back to seasonable temperatures, as a brief
ridge slides through the region.

Sunday our next system pushes onshore the Pacific NW. Most of the
region has a 40 to 50% chance of receiving a 0.10 inch of
precipitation by Monday night.


&&

.AVIATION...Mid-level clouds, roughly 12K AGL, increase after 09z
across the region. Prior to 18z a few light showers or virga
showers producing outflow winds up to 20 kts will be possible, but
low probability, at KMSO, KHRF, and KSMN. Showers and
thunderstorms develop after 21z at KMSO, KHRF, and KSMN, while the
rest of the terminals will see convection after 26/23z. These
showers or storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds up to
30kts and brief heavy rain decreasing visibilities temporarily.









&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...&&

$$