844
FXUS66 KMTR 071805
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1105 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Cooling continues through the weekend, with temperatures largely
near seasonal averages. Warming returns early next week as ridging
redevelops, though not expecting temperatures to reach as high as
they did the last few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A look at nighttime satellite this morning shows stratus
trickling down the Salinas valley, and attempting to reach up into
the SF Bay Area. An "otter eddy" can be seen swirling about the
Monterey Bay as stratus continues to feed in. Elsewhere, skies are
clear and temperatures comfortable in the mid 50s for most
locations. Speaking of more comfortable temperatures, highs today
will largely be in the low to mid 80s for inland regions, mid to
upper 70s for the SF bay region, and closer to the low 60s for the
coastline. This cooldown comes as a upper level shortwave trough
moves through the region today bringing relief to many regions.
Temperatures will largely be close to seasonal averages, perhaps
just 2-3 degrees above normal for far southern Monterey county and
the northern extremes of Napa and Sonoma counties.

The cooling trend continues into the weekend as models show good
agreement in an upper level trough developing Saturday. This will
also usher in mid to high level clouds that will dot the sky, with
coastal stratus becoming more widespread. The extent of stratus
along the coastline will be helpful in keeping temperatures on the
cooler side through the early part of the day, around 5-10 degrees
lower than normal in some spots. Along the coastline, high temps
will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Further inland on Saturday and
Sunday, highs will generally be in the low 80s, with a few
particular warm spots closest to the Central Valley seeing the upper
80s. This upper level trough will also help create breezier
conditions in the afternoons, largely in the Salinas valley and the
SF Bay counties bordering the delta region. Wind gusts towards the
20-25 mph mark in this favored areas are possible, but then ease
into the nighttime.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Starting Monday, the trough begins to be cut off, eventually forming
a cut-off low. This transient low, without any good steering
mechanism, lingers through the mid to late week to our southwest
before exiting off to the east in the later week, lifting into our
region as it does so. Despite this lingering feature, models
indicate slight ridging developing into the early week which will
help to warm temperatures once more. However, as it currently
stands, the warmth will likely not be the the levels seen previously
this week. Low to mid 90s for the inland regions Monday and Tuesday
are forecast, with mid 60s to the lowest 70s at the coast. Tuesday
currently appears to be the warmest day, with high temperatures
generally about 10 degrees above normal for inland locations.
Wednesday, slight cooling returns with high temperatures receding by
a few degrees. This cooling trend persists through the remainder of
the week as the pesky low reconnects with the jet stream and lifts
out to the east.

More zonal flow (west to east) develops over our
region in the late week next week. Current CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks suggest near normal temperatures for our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The coastal stratus is mixing out and most terminals have
returned to VFR conditions. With high pressure aloft, the North
Bay terminals have been slight visibility reductions in haze. A
500 mb ridge axis will gradually push through this evening before
troughing begins to move in Saturday. This will allow the marine
layer to compress slightly overnight and should bring ceilings
lower. Otherwise moderate onshore winds will remain in place
before drainage flow sets up in the valleys tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...Winds are currently from the NNE, but will soon
shift to the standard 280 this afternoon. SFO is currently VFR,
with model guidance suggesting a push of stratus through the
Golden Gate this afternoon. This will likely bring MVFR CIGs to
OAK by the late afternoon/early evening, but due to the wind
direction and terrain shelter, SFO has a better chance of staying
VFR with low clouds remaining to the N and E. SFO won`t dodge the
low clouds forever though as a deepening marine layer will very
likely bring MVFR conditions to the terminal Saturday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...The bridge approach is likely to stay clear
this evening, even if SFO and OAK develop ceilings.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Morning ceilings are starting to clear
and there is a 6 or 7 hour window of VFR conditions expected
before they return. With a compressing marine layer, MRY has about
a 50% chance of seeing LIFR conditions in the morning, with a 40%
chance at SNS. There is also a decent chance for morning mist,
and subsequent TAF updates may get more aggressive dropping the
visibility. Otherwise SNS has been reporting some haze this
morning, and that is expected to continue under high pressure.
Expected moderate W-NW winds through the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1041 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Areas of fog and drizzle will cause reduced visibility through
the morning across Monterey Bay and along the Big Sur Coast.
Winds and seas will remain hazardous for areas along and north of
the Greater Farallones through Friday afternoon where Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect. Elsewhere, winds and seas are
forecast to subside below 20 knots and 10 feet, respectively. This
will be relatively short lived as 20-25 knot winds increase
during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. Seas will respond later
Sunday morning and into the afternoon, likely necessitating
additional marine headlines.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM....AC
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea