235
FXUS64 KOUN 230815
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
315 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Stalled weak frontal boundary across northern portions of Oklahoma
will slowly weaken and mix back to the north through the day. The
hottest temperatures will likely be just south of this boundary,
across central portions of Oklahoma. Temperatures are expected to
be a few degrees less hot than yesterday north of the front and
there will be additional cloud cover at least into early portions
of the afternoon, but dewpoints will be higher/pooled north of the
front. Despite many locations not quite reaching criteria in
latest iteration of forecast, we will keep the heat advisory
going for today. With the new forecast numbers indicating heat
indices just as high or higher farther south, we expanded the
advisory down to the Red River near and east of I-35.

Mild/muggy night expected again tonight with most lows well into
the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Heat advisory will continue for Monday, with some westward
expansion to the one issued for Sunday. Additional advisories can
be expected through the week.

Broad, upper ridge still forecast to spread westward and become
more meridional over the southern and central Rockies for the
first half of the week, before getting suppressed some by next
weekend. This is expected to produce the hottest stretch most
locations have seen this year with upper 90s to lower 100s through
the week. Dewpoints progd to remain seasonably high especially
across the eastern half of Oklahoma, which allow apparent
temperatures to rise close to or slightly higher than heat
advisory levels (105F). Wednesday may be the outlier across
northern portions of Oklahoma behind a weak front and potential
MCS outflow boundary. Relatively low rain chances will continue
in the forecast for Tuesday night and early Wednesday, but it
still looks like most of the showers and storms will stay must
north and east of our forecast area.

Hottest temperatures of the week may actually be realized during
the latter half with veered flow ahead of the next front that is
forecast to move into the region next weekend. This will likely
keep at least heat advisory level heat going most days over large
areas, with an excessive heat warning for at least parts of the
region not out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions to continue.

Light south winds overnight with a few mid/high clouds. A few
showers may impact north-central Oklahoma, but chances remain too
low to mention at PNC at this time. A weak front across northern
Oklahoma will shift the winds at WWR/PNC/SWO to the east for much
of the day tomorrow before shifting back to the southeast Sunday
evening. Otherwise, mainly some daytime high-based cu and cirrus
during the day tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  77  99  77 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK        101  76 101  78 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 100  76 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           99  75 101  77 /   0  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     98  76 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         98  76  99  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ005>008-
     011>013-017>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-040>043-046>048-
     050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30