Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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686 FXUS64 KOUN 190343 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1043 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1041 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in northern and western Oklahoma this evening, with scattered thunderstorms possible from northern to central Oklahoma tomorrow evening. - Hot/humid conditions on Thursday and Friday. - Heat relief looking probable by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Cumulus has begun to develop in northwestern Oklahoma, and there remains some signal in both synoptic models and CAMs of seeing convection development across northwestern and western Oklahoma late this afternoon or this evening near an area of confluence in the low-level wind field. Forcing is not terribly strong and expected any development to be isolated or scattered. There is an axis of higher instability from west central Texas up into far northwestern Oklahoma with CAPE above 1000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecast, so an isolated strong or severe storm will be possible, and SPC`s marginal risk area highlights the potential area well... but do currently think that severe potential will be isolated. Although many of the showers and storms will likely dissipate by mid-late evening, there is still enough QPF signal in some models overnight and into Thursday morning to keep some low POPs in the forecast. But scattered storms are expected to develop again Thursday afternoon near and ahead of a front moving into the area. Winds veer ahead of this front Thursday proving a more downslope flow and warmer temperatures. And even though a front pushes into northwest Oklahoma on Thursday, the arrival is late enough it won`t provide relief from the warm expected temperatures on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Thursday`s front washes out and still does not provide any significant cooling for the area, so warm weather will continue Friday and Saturday. A western U.S. trough is still expected to eject toward the Plains this weekend, but the trend continues to slow this system and related precipitation for our forecast area - more toward Saturday night and Sunday. The forecast continues to carry 30%+ POPs north and 20% POPs south, but the highest QPF signal is north of the forecast area given the projected track of the storm system. This system does help push a front south through the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night bringing cooler weather back into the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR will be forecast through the period, outside of restrictions associated with scattered TSRA across northern and central Oklahoma after 21Z. Otherwise, light to moderate southerly winds ahead of a cold front that is progd to stall near the Kansas border before lifting back to the north after this forecast valid period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 73 96 74 98 / 20 30 30 0 Hobart OK 74 100 74 100 / 20 20 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 75 100 74 101 / 10 20 10 0 Gage OK 70 99 68 100 / 20 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 72 99 70 98 / 20 30 30 0 Durant OK 71 97 72 98 / 0 10 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...11