Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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186 FXUS64 KOUN 102338 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 638 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 This Evening: `Cool` temperatures, along with low-medium (20-40%) potential for showers/a few storms across the southwestern forecast area, are expected into the evening. Amidst a modified (dry continental) airmass, temperatures are running 5-15 degrees below average for mid-June. Coolest conditions are occurring across the Red River Valley, where cloud cover and scattered areas of precipitation have prevailed for much of the early afternoon. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a pair of mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) rotating across portions of the central Texas Panhandle/eastern New Mexico. Widely scattered precipitation development has been ongoing (associated with this feature) since the mid-morning and is expected across the far southwestern forecast area for another 2-4 hours. Late this evening (after ~7-8 PM), will monitor approach of a semi-organized storm cluster, which may skirt far southern portions of our Texas counties into the late evening. Severe weather potential is very low with any storm into/through the overnight, though brief periods of gusty wind/small hail potential with the strongest storms cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain and localized flooding may also emerge, especially where heaviest totals have occurred the past 24 hours (Knox/Foard/Baylor/Wilbarger counties). Tuesday: Seasonable temperatures (mid to upper-80s) return along with medium (40-60%) potential for precipitation across southwestern Oklahoma and north Texas through the evening. Short-range guidance highlights potential for a round of early to mid-morning precipitation across aforementioned areas, potentially aided by a remnant mesoscale vortex. A few thunderstorms may also develop in the period, though severe weather concern is expected to remain very low. Widely scattered precipitation cores/areas are expected into the afternoon/early evening, though forecast to become more confined (to the far southern forecast area) with time. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Rest of the Work Week: Hot and mostly dry weather is expected. Grand ensemble guidance highlights upper ridging across portions of the Intermountain West/Four Corners by the midweek. The impact on local sensible weather will be a transition towards hot temperatures (upper-80s to mid-90s) and dry weather, especially for Wednesday and Thursday. Weekend: The return of at least low/widely scattered precipitation chance is evident by late Friday into the upcoming weekend. Global deterministic/ensemble guidance shows a previous (cutoff) upper low across the Desert Southwest transitioning towards an open wave, while slowly progressing towards the central Plains by Friday. While uncertainty prevails relating to this feature, and resultant precipitation/storm coverage in our area, will maintain mention of at least low (20-30%) storm potential across northern/western Oklahoma by Friday night into the weekend. Ungar && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 MVFR conditions expected across southern/southwest Oklahoma and KSPS terminals much of the forecast period. There will be some VFR conditions this evening, but with moisture beginning to shift north and east ahead of incoming mid-level wave, cigs should lower and rain chances will increase tomorrow morning and last into the afternoon. Some TSRA will be possible, mainly around KLAW and KSPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 83 65 89 / 10 20 10 0 Hobart OK 65 81 65 89 / 40 40 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 67 81 67 88 / 40 50 20 10 Gage OK 63 85 63 92 / 20 20 10 0 Ponca City OK 62 87 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 66 84 65 88 / 10 20 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...11