Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
908 FXUS64 KOUN 041054 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 554 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A low level jet, which is expect to veer with time, and mid-level warm advection will continue to foster storms across central and eastern Oklahoma through the early morning hours. With high elevated instability, some hail is likely but expect storms may transition to more of a damaging wind risk. Although some of the CAMs have become less bullish on a forward propagating MCS, still feel this will occur, with the main impacts across the southeast 1/4 of Oklahoma. Unlike the last several nights, this system is expected to exit the area during the early morning instead of afternoon. This will allow much better heating throughout the day and potential recovery for additional storms. A little hard to predict where a remnant boundary will be by late afternoon, but guidance suggest a synoptic boundary will extend from the southern Texas Panhandle northeast into northwest/north central Oklahoma. Trailing from the front will be a dryline/perhaps outflow boundary with very high instability developing near and east of the boundary. Very warm temperatures around 7h may limit thunderstorm develop or coverage, but there could be an area in north central Oklahoma where more numerous storms could develop. Overall pretty low confidence in this exact area. It possible that another complex could develop during the evening and mainly impact the eastern half/third of Oklahoma. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 It appears the frontal boundary may push far enough south that Wednesday into Wednesday night will be dry perhaps into Thursday. Another weak front may push across much of Oklahoma on Thursday but increasing heights to our west, may reduce storm chance along the front. Models differ some, but it is possible that we transition to more of a traditional MCS pattern Friday night into the weeknight. This will occur with upslope flow over the higher terrain and northwest flow. Timing will generally be late evening into the overnight/early morning hours. Usually heavy rainfall and strong winds will be the main concerns. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 MVFR ceilings and some lower visibility will remain possible this morning and may linger into the afternoon wrt ceilings. Isolated storms this morning should remain outside the TAF sites. More storms expected to develop across north-central into central Oklahoma late this afternoon and then traversing south/southeast this evening and overnight. South winds will shift to the north behind a front that will enter northwest Oklahoma later this morning and move through all but DUA by this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 89 68 90 68 / 10 50 0 0 Hobart OK 96 69 94 69 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 99 70 92 71 / 10 20 0 0 Gage OK 89 63 95 68 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 86 65 89 66 / 10 50 0 0 Durant OK 89 70 89 70 / 30 50 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ023>032-039>043- 045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...30