Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 221005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
505 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

12Z TAFs - VFR conditions this TAF period although low VFR/MVFR
ceilings may develop early Friday morning but too uncertain at
this point to put in TAFs. Breezy south to southeast winds
expected this TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

Breezy south winds and warmer temperatures expected today with
afternoon highs climbing into the 70s and 80s. Stronger south to
southwest winds are expected Friday. Moisture will increase over the
area the next couple of days as the moisture spreads north on the
southerly winds.

Models show a dryline moving into western portions of the fa Friday
but there are some uncertainties on how far east the dryline moves
which will have an impact on area of increased fire weather
conditions. Temperatures on Friday are expected to be well above
normal with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees across a good
portion of the fa with the hottest temperatures expected in western
portions of the area. The winds along with very warm temperatures
and drier air/low RH behind the dryline Friday afternoon will likely
result in Near Critical to Critical fire weather conditions across
at least a portion of the western part of the fa. Will continue with
the Fire Weather Watch for Friday afternoon but add another tier of
counties to the E/SE of current watch.

Models show a cold front moving across the area Friday night into
Saturday as a shortwave moves across the central Plains. The cap
will likely be too strong for any rain with this system. The front
eventually stalls near the Red River Saturday before lifting back
north as a warm front Sunday.

Models show a wet weather pattern beginning this weekend and
continuing next week, with heavy rain and potentially flooding
becoming a concern next week. Models show a trough digging into the
southwest U.S. with a closed low developing and hanging out over the
region before moving east and eventually moving across the plains
later next week. This will lead to southwest flow aloft over the
region with embedded disturbances/shortwaves affecting the region.
The rain chances will begin over the weekend as waa develops and the
warm front lifts north. Showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible through at least the middle of next week due to the upper
system still being west of the region. Another cold front is
forecast to move across the area Tuesday. Models show the potential
for an area of heavy rain developing somewhere over the fa early
next week with the highest QPF currently forecast near and southeast
of I-44 corridor. Some strong to severe storms could also be
possible this weekend into next week.


Oklahoma City OK  74  57  81  57 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         77  57  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           79  54  93  49 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     74  56  80  53 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         74  55  74  63 /   0   0  10  10


OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022-033-034.



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