Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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295 FXUS64 KOUN 302005 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 This Evening/Overnight: Another round of storms/severe weather concern is expected late this evening. A few scattered areas of rain continue across eastern portions of the forecast area, associated with a departing mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). For the western two-thirds of the forecast area, a mostly dry afternoon is expected with clearing skies and temperatures warming into the low-80s. Across the panhandles/High Plains, widespread convective development is underway (and expected to continue into the evening) as a weak upper wave/synoptic forcing overspreads a dryline. With time (into the mid/late evening), storms are expected to consolidate/merge along cold pools and propagate towards portions of western Oklahoma/western-north Texas. Depending on how much the boundary layer recovers/destabilizes in the wake of our morning/early afternoon round of precipitation/cloud cover, severe weather outcomes will be possible this evening across the aforementioned areas. Given forecast storm organization (into clusters/a line), damaging winds appear to be the main severe hazard. A few instances of hail will also be possible with stronger individual storm cores. Heavy rainfall and flooding will also be a concern, especially where heavier totals have occurred over the past few days. A Flood Watch has been posted for portions of southern Oklahoma/western- north Texas where concern for flooding is highest through daybreak Friday. Intensity of any convective system is expected to gradually decrease as it approaches central/south-central/southeast Oklahoma early on Friday morning. An additional zone of storm potential may emerge across the eastern Texas Panhandle/western-north Texas towards daybreak. Severe weather chances with both regimes is expected to be low after 3-4 AM Friday, though a strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. Friday: Many areas will note mostly dry time through the day, though a few showers/storms will remain possible (especially for eastern zones). Some areas of precipitation are possible on the periphery of departing convective system(s) through the early afternoon. Severe weather concern after daybreak tomorrow is low, and many areas are expected to remain/become dry by the early afternoon. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Friday Night-Saturday Night: Additional (intermittent) rounds of storms are expected, posing at least limited concern for severe outcomes. Guidance continues to highlight multiple weak upper waves, embedded within an active subtropical jet, emerging across the Great Divide to begin the weekend. This will introduce continued potential for convection to advance from the High Plains into western/northern portions of the forecast area. The most likely periods for this will be Saturday morning and again on Sunday morning, though timing of individual storm rounds remains low predictability. Some severe weather potential will likely exist, especially on Sunday morning as a stronger low-level jet/mass response looks to be present. Sunday-Next Work Week: Transition towards mostly dry weather is expected into the next work week. Early in the period (late weekend), a few periods of showers/storms will be possible as signal exists for continued wave propagation across the Central Plains. Most areas, especially along/south of Interstate 40, will likely remain mostly dry, though occasional showers/storms will be possible further north. By early next week (Tuesday onward), guidance continues to show a strong signal for the upper pattern to evolve towards dominant western US ridging. This will allow seasonable temperatures and dry weather to prevail in the period. Ungar && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A line of storms is pushing eastward across our area early this afternoon, with attendant reductions in visibility. An MCV with an area of moderate precip is slowly moving eastward behind it with the precip shield decaying. Skies are expected to recover back to VFR behind the storms/rain in most areas, before the loss of heating brings back MVFR/IFR ceilings in most areas. Another line of storms is expected late this evening into early tonight primarily across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 78 63 84 / 70 60 20 20 Hobart OK 62 81 62 86 / 90 50 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 65 81 65 86 / 90 50 20 20 Gage OK 59 80 60 86 / 70 30 20 20 Ponca City OK 64 77 61 84 / 60 70 20 20 Durant OK 66 79 66 86 / 70 80 30 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning for OKZ033>039-044-045-050>052. TX...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...04