591
FXUS64 KOUN 220743
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
243 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Very light, high based showers seen again early this morning across
western and northern portions of Oklahoma. Where the rain reaches
the ground, mainly trace amounts are expected through day break,
mainly north of an Elk City to Enid and Ponca City line.

Highs today are anticipated to be at least of few degrees hotter
than those seen yesterday with stronger southwesterly low level
winds. Offsetting a more significant increase in temperatures,
especially for western and northern parts of Oklahoma, will be
continued redevelopment of mid/high level cloud cover within plume
of elevated moisture ahead of northern/central plains upper level
trough. Cannot rule out sprinkles through the morning within this
moisture plume (area mentioned above). Attention then turns
toward weak frontal boundary that pushes into northern Oklahoma
late today/tonight in response to the passing central plains
trough. A few showers and thunderstorms appear possible near this
front across far northern Oklahoma this evening and tonight,
before the front lifts back to the north on Sunday. Very mild
temperatures expected again tonight, with most lows mainly in the
mid-upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Forecast of broad, flattened ridge to progress westward over the
region this weekend still appears on track. Heights then build
over the southern Rockies early to mid week, with the ECM showing
slightly better consistency and more influence of this building
ridge than other models. The GFS is backing off on its aggressive
convective potential late Tuesday and Wednesday, but enough
signal exists to maintain similar PoPs from previous forecasts
across mainly northern through central Oklahoma. Decrease in
temperatures behind the Tuesday night/Wednesday frontal boundary
appears to be minimal, with southerly flow returning Thursday and
Friday ahead of a potentially stronger front next weekend. This
will keep temperatures above average for the latter part of the
week. Without any significant cooling and dewpoints remaining
seasonably high, heat advisories appear likely much of next week
for a majority of the forecast area (heat indices 105 to 110).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions to continue.

Light to moderate south winds will increase Saturday morning with
many sites gusting above 20kts. Some high clouds will continue to
stream across with some daytime cu, although less extensive than
previous days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  77  98  77 /   0  10   0   0
Hobart OK         97  76 100  76 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  96  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           98  74  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     98  77  98  77 /   0  10   0  10
Durant OK         95  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30