Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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475 FXUS64 KOUN 191055 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 555 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 551 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in northern and central Oklahoma this evening, with wind gusts up to 60 mph possible. - Hot/humid conditions today and tomorrow. - Heat relief is expected by early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 218 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Most of the area will be hotter today in the prefrontal torch regime just south of a weak frontal boundary. In fact, we will likely be flirting with record highs, especially along an axis from Vernon toward Enid. Heat indices will approach and may well exceed 105 in spots, especially in north central Oklahoma this afternoon. However, given the fact that we are approaching the autumnal equinox, the duration of maximum heat risk will be much shorter than it would be in June. This combined with the anticipation of 10 mph winds will keep the heat risk low enough to preclude heat advisory issuance at this time. We will continue to monitor the forecast and update as needed. This evening`s model guidance has trended a touch to the south with the stall point of that boundary and now suggests it will be along a line roughly from Ponca City to Erick by late afternoon. Storm development still appears probable this afternoon in a hot, well-mixed environment to the south of the boundary. Low- level shear will be weak, allowing storms to become outflow-dominant rapidly, but there is a chance for a bit of consolidation into southeastward-moving storm clusters capable of wind gusts up to 60 mph. Storms will rapidly diminish toward sunset as surface temperatures begin to cool off. A warm night is expected, with lows only dropping to the mid-70s from the OKC metro to the south. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 218 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Another day of near-record heat is expected tomorrow. This time, the axis of the highest temperatures will shift a little bit south and east as the front stalls out and eventually begins a slow northward return. Widespread highs near 100 are possible. Subtle height falls will occur toward northwest Oklahoma in the evening, which could be enough to set off another round of showers and storms near a triple point. An upper-level closed low will approach from the southern Rockies during the day on Saturday. Although the subtropical ridge doesn`t look like it will be fully dislodged from our area during the day, it will weaken enough to bring maximum temperatures down a couple of degrees. As of right now, daytime on Saturday looks to be dry. That trough will eject into the Plains on Sunday, bringing with it a much stronger cold front. Storm chances may be highest Sunday night as the cold front surges through the area, though we will keep an eye on the dryline during the day on Sunday as well. Beginning on Monday, the pattern will make a shift toward - if not fall - then at least not summer. Highs will drop toward 80 across much of the area and remain there at least through the middle of the week. Meister && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Mainly expect VFR conditions through forecast period. Some mid/high clouds through the day. There is a low chance for a few storms to impact sites across north-central into central Oklahoma late this afternoon and evening., so have maintained PROB30 at PNC/SWO/OKC/OUN. South winds become gusty through the day with gusts to 25kts across the west, expected to diminish this evening. A weak surface boundary will move through WWR late today with north winds for a short time this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 97 74 98 74 / 20 20 0 0 Hobart OK 100 74 100 72 / 20 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 100 74 101 73 / 0 10 0 0 Gage OK 100 67 100 71 / 10 0 20 20 Ponca City OK 100 70 99 74 / 20 20 20 20 Durant OK 97 73 99 73 / 0 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...30