Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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078 FXUS63 KPAH 030453 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1153 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place through much of this week, resulting in on and off chances of showers and storms, mainly Monday through Wednesday. - The storms on Monday will be capable of producing very heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Localized flooding will also be possible. - High temperatures are projected to trend warmer, reaching the mid to upper 80s Monday to Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure has allowed for dry conditions today, with the exception of a spotty light shower in the northeast this afternoon. Temperatures have risen to the upper 70s to mid-80s range. Some model guidance suggests minor visibility decreases tonight in the east. Active weather begins tomorrow as a disturbance moves northeastward from Oklahoma. Model trends have been towards delaying start time, with SEMO getting showers and storms beginning during the afternoon hours. Showers and storms continue through the evening and overnight hours. CAMs show a fairly substantial spread regarding timing and location but somewhat agree on a semi-organized line near sunset or overnight, primarily affecting SEMO. HREF PMMs suggest the potential for substantial rainfall in SEMO, and the Ozarks in particular. However, this largely comes from the 12Z HRRR and the NAMnest. The 18Z HRRR alters the location of heavier rainfall and is lower on top end amounts, while the NAMnest is an extremely wet outlier and most ambitious with shear that also seems to be trending closer to the other models as the 18Z data starts rolling in. Robust instability to 3000 J/kg will produce convection but, with shear around 20 kts or less (aside from the NAMnest), severe weather potential should be somewhat limited, making heavy rain and flooding issues the primary concern. Models weaken showers/storms that make it to eastern portions of the Quad State, so better potential for strong storms and rainfall will be in SEMO and nearby portions of IL/KY. Due in large part to variation in handling of the late Monday to early Tuesday storms, models disagree on additional showers/storms later in the day Tuesday, either via a smaller scale disturbance or just delayed progression of the first system. A much clearer source of showers and storms will be ahead of the Wednesday frontal passage. Shear is a little better, but instability reduced, keeping storm severity potential fairly limited. Across the Monday-Wednesday time period, 1-2 inches of rainfall is likely, with higher amounts most likely to occur in SEMO. Drier conditions move in for the end of the week as high pressure moves southeastward. Strong mid-level low pressure in the Great Lakes and high pressure in the Desert Southwest sets up northwesterly flow aloft. Models favor a track southwest of the Quad State for the primary NW to SE flow though a slight chance of precip returns for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Quiet weather with fairly light winds expected tonight into Monday morning. High clouds will steadily be on the increase at each of the TAF sites. Otherwise, the next disturbance will arrive late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance will be over the western TAF sites (CGI/MVN/PAH) with a bit lower confidence at EVV/OWB. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DW DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...KC