Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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631 FXUS61 KPHI 110548 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 148 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to ridge across the area into the middle of the week. Meanwhile, an upper trough swings across the northern Middle Atlantic region. At the end of the week, a cold front crosses the region. Fair weather follows the front and remains into the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak wave of low pressure bringing a band of showers and embedded thunder across the Delmarva and far southern NJ early this morning should be departing off the coast before dawn. Further north, partly to mostly cloudy and seasonably cool with temps in the 50s to low 60s. For today, most of the area starts out quiet and dry with some sun. However, with closed low developing just to the north and plenty of vorticity rotating around, combined with the cold pool aloft and strong June insolation, and we`ll likely see a lot of cumulus to stratocumulus by midday. A lot of guidance also hits on sea-breeze front helping spawn some showers and isolated thunderstorms by this afternoon, starting out mostly over NJ and DE but possibly migrating inland toward SE PA. So, have chance POPs across much of the region for the PM, but further NW, looks like the Lehigh Valley, Berks and Poconos are more likely to stay dry. Temps will be rather cool for mid-June, with 70s common. Tonight, upper low starts migrating back to the northeast and heights rise rapidly. This should cause lingering convection to die quickly before sunset with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight. Lows mostly in the 50s to low 60s. Enjoy it, as we`re about to flip the page to summer in a big way. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper trough/low will have moved away and weakened by midweek. Surface high pressure will remain across the region with fair weather expected from Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will begin the period near normal, but end up above normal by Thursday with highs Thu in the mid/upper 80s most areas with some low 90s around the metro Philadelphia area. Except for Delmarva, the humidity levels will still not be too uncomfortable Thu, but the heat/humidity will be increasing over the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Hotter temperatures are expected for the end of the week as upper ridging builds across the Eastern part of the country. The westerlies and storm track will remain close enough to keep the extreme heat away from the region, but above normal is one theme for Friday and into the weekend. Friday will feature the warmest readings with widespread 90 to 95 degree temperatures for the area. It will also arrive with higher humidity levels too with dew points in the 60s for most spots. Relief from the heat and humidity will be found near the shore with highs there in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Along with the summer-like warmth Friday comes the only noticeable chance for showers/tstms during the long term. A cold front drops through the area creating lift needed to produce the rains. Pops are in the slight chance/chance range for now with the higher percentages for the N/W areas. Severe weather may be possible with some CAPE/shear present (mostly NW areas). Following the frontal passage Fri night, drier and slightly cooler air arrives from the Great Lakes region. While high temperatures will still be above normal Sat/Sun, humidity levels will be more comfortable. No rains is expected this weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12Z...VFR. Scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm approaching KACY/KMIV but impacts unlikely. Winds north to northwest 5 kts or less. High confidence. Today...VFR overall. Scattered, mainly afternoon showers may impact all terminals except KRDG/KABE, with an isolated t-storm possible as well, most likely at KMIV. A heavier storm could briefly reduce vsby to MVFR or even IFR, but it should be very transient should it occur. Winds north to northeast, becoming southeast for KMIV/KACY in the afternoon and NW for remaining terminals, generally 5 kts or less. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR. Winds becoming NW 5 kts or less. High confidence. Outlook... Wed/Thu... VFR much of the time. Haze possible Thu. Friday... Lower CIGS/VSBYS possible in showers/tstms. Saturday... VFR expected. && .MARINE... No marine headlines thru tonight. Winds generally below 10 kts. Seas 1-2 ft. An isolated thunderstorm possible, mainly this afternoon. Outlook... Generally sub-SCA conditions from Tuesday night into early Friday with fair weather. Later Friday, SCA gusts and near 5ft seas are possible with scattered showers/tstms. Fair weather Sat/Sun. Rip Currents... Low risk of rip currents in place for Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be onshore tomorrow, but with winds weak, and a short to medium period swell combined with 1 to 2 foot breakers, there is a low risk for rip currents. Similar conditions on Wednesday, though winds go more shore parallel, still less than 10 MPH. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OHara/RCM/Staarmann NEAR TERM...RCM SHORT TERM...OHara LONG TERM...OHara AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/OHara/RCM MARINE...DeSilva/Hoeflich/OHara/RCM