052
FXUS61 KPHI 091042
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
642 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front may bring a few showers today. Cooler conditions
prevail with a slight shower potential Monday and Tuesday as an
upper low lingers nearby. High pressure builds Wednesday and
Thursday with significant warming. Another front may approach
towards week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Zonal flow is giving way to an approaching shortwave trough
this morning. A weak cold front is also approaching from the
southern Great Lakes region. Cloud cover has increased notably
as of 6 AM. A few showers are possible, mainly north of Philly
through mid to late morning. Southwest winds will increase
ahead of the front this morning to around 10-15 mph. As the
frontal boundary nears the coast toward early afternoon, better
diurnal instability could result in a few more showers near the
coast as well.

This system will push offshore into the afternoon, giving way
to clearing skies from northwest to southeast through the
remainder of the day. Meanwhile, dewpoints will mix out quite
nicely, even getting into the upper 40s in some spots. This
combined with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s north to mid
80s south will make for another pleasant and seasonable June
day across the area. It will be another breezy day though, with
winds shifting northwest behind the front and remaining near
10-20 mph with some gusts up to 30 mph possible at times.

For tonight, a light westerly gradient wind will persist with a
few passing clouds at times. Expect low temperatures in the 50s
to near 60 degrees by dawn Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough axis will be just to the west Monday morning and
will slowly slide eastward across the region through Tuesday
evening. Various vort maxima rotating around the trough and
across our region could provoke a shower here and there, with
the best bet appearing to be down in the Delmarva Monday evening
as a more portent max crosses, but overall, dry conditions will
prevail through the short term. The cool air aloft will promote
afternoon cloud development, so both days may start with some
morning sun followed by a greyer afternoon. Yesterday guidance
suggested Tuesday was going to be slightly cooler than Monday,
but today those have flipped. That said, both days now look
like few will manage 80 degrees either afternoon, with both
nights featuring pleasant temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridge building in from the southwest will be the
main factor through at least midday Friday as enter a rapid
warming trend. Highs rise around 5 degrees each day, with low-
mid 80s Wednesday, upper 80s to around 90 Thursday, and low-mid
90s Friday. Friday is notably higher than the last round of
guidance so will be watching this one a little closely to see if
this trend holds, but this could be our first heat advisory
event of the summer. Night-time temps will also feature a
notable uptick, with low-mid 60s Wednesday night and upper 60s
to near 70 Thursday night.

The heat doesn`t appear to last long, however, as a cold front
is still progged to cross the region at week`s end. Right now
timing favors an early morning Saturday passage, which would
limit the significant weather risk, but still have some thunder
risk and shower chances in the forecast. Either way, the front
looks pretty fast right now, and by late Saturday we are back in
the 80s with a return of sunshine and lowered humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with scattered to broken clouds. Southwest winds
increasing to near 10 kts with gusts near 18-20 kts possible
ahead of a cold front that will pass through from around 15-18Z.
A few showers may accompany the front, especially north of PHL
where a VCSH has been included with the TAFs. Any SHRA activity
is unlikely to result in any restrictions, but perhaps a brief
MVFR ceiling may occur. Behind the front, winds will shift to
the northwest near 15 kts with gusts 20- 25 kts possible at
times. High confidence in prevailing conditions.

Tonight...VFR with some passing clouds. Winds becoming westerly
near 5 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...
VFR Monday through Thursday with just the very slight chance of
a shower Monday and Tuesday - no significant weather on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through tonight. Southwest
winds increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts at times.
Winds will shift to the northwest into the afternoon with some
occasional gusts near 25 kts possible, especially near the
coast. Winds remain from the west near 10-15 kts tonight. Seas
2-4 feet. Aside from a possible isolated shower this afternoon,
fair weather is expected.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday night...Conditions should remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds will gust to 15 kts or less
with wave heights no higher than 3 feet. An isolated shower is
possible Monday and Tuesday, no significant weather on
Wednesday. By Thursday, winds and seas may approach SCA levels
with gusts to 20 kts, locally higher, and waves u to 4 feet,
also locally higher. Otherwise, no significant weather Thursday.

Rip Currents...

For today, southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph combined with waves
of 2-3 feet will result in a MODERATE risk of rip currents along
the Ocean and Atlantic county beaches in New Jersey. Lower wave
heights of 1-2 feet elsewhere will allow for a LOW risk of rip
currents for the remainder of the New Jersey shore and the
Delaware beaches.

For Monday, west winds around 10 mph combined with wave heights
of 1-2 feet and short to medium period swells will result in a
LOW risk of rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCM/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/Staarmann
MARINE...RCM/Staarmann