Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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776 FXUS61 KRLX 052210 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 610 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy with a wave of showers and thunderstorms this evening. Another wave of convection ahead of a cold front late tonight. Cooler and drier Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 600 PM Wednesday... Updated the forecast to better show the timing of precipitation overnight based on latest radar and meso models. As of 130 PM Wednesday... Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity as a cold front approaches from the west this evening, and then crosses east of the Appalachians by early Thursday morning. Despite of the lack of heating, the cold front will encounter an unstable environment with residual CAPE about 800 J/Kg, bulk shear 20 to 30 knots and PWATs from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Hi-res models brings a cluster of convection ahead of the cold front reaching the Middle Ohio valley before midnight. Although severe storms are not expected at this time, tall skinny soundings suggest very heavy downpours this evening through tonight. Additional 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain can be expected tonight with locally heavier rainfall rates. Isolated flooding issues may be possible tonight as the area remains under a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Behind the cold front, lingering light showers will gradually taper off across the mountains on Thursday leading to mostly dry weather thereafter. The area remains under a slight risk for excessive rainfall through Thursday morning, so an isolated water issues are not out of the question. Expect a muggy night with dewpoints way in the upper 60s. Highs for Thursday will range from the mid 80s lowlands, into the mid 60s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1201 PM Wednesday... A large upper-level low will be spinning over the Great Lakes Friday. Most of the region should remain dry due to dry air at the lower levels of the atmosphere, but a spot shower cannot be ruled out across the far north, closer to the upper-level energy associated with the low. The lower heights aloft will result in a cooler than normal day with high temperatures expected to be in the lower to middle 70s. A comfortably cool night is expected Friday night with lows in the upper 40s in some of the higher elevations and the 50s in the lowlands. Saturday should be largely dry with most of the upper-level energy remaining well to the north. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1201 PM Wednesday... The aforementioned upper-level energy is projected to dive southward Sunday with a cold front following at the surface. This will help reintroduce shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday. The upper-level pattern still looks messy heading into the new work week, and the lingering energy aloft will support chances for convection again on Monday. Beyond Monday, models diverge and the forecast becomes uncertain. Some models show a closed upper-level low developing over the mid-Atlantic, while others show subtle ridging over our area with an upper-low passing east of the central Great Plains. Given the unsettled pattern we`ve had recently, we kept chances for precipitation in the forecast through the middle of next week, but confidence will remain low until models come into better agreement. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 605 PM Wednesday... A band of showers and thunderstorms will push northeastward across the area this evening, possibly providing brief IFR or lower conditions. Much of the area will then see a break in the precipitation. Some fog could form in the mountain valleys during this break, but thinking winds will keep the fog out of the western lowlands. Later tonight/Thursday morning a cold front will move through providing another band of showers and thunderstorms. Additional afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium, except low with fog formation overnight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not form overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H M H EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M H L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L M M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M L L L L L M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms at times Thursday evening. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ/JMC NEAR TERM...RPY/ARJ/JZ SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...RPY/ARJ/JP