Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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956 FXUS63 KSGF 212205 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 505 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible this evening...with an Enhanced (3 of 5 level) risk over west central and central MO and a Slight Risk for much of the region southward to the Arkansas border. Hail to the size of baseballs and damaging wind gusts will be the primary concerns followed by tornadoes. - Another round of severe weather is possible again Wednesday toward south-central Missouri with Slight (2 of 5 level) to Enhanced (3 of 5 level) risk. Hail to the size of golf balls will be the primary threat followed by damaging wind. - Unsettled weather may persist through the end of this week and into Memorial Day weekend (daily 30-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Band of cumulus congestus from west of the KC area southwest to near KCNU on into north central OK marking the region where the cap is eroding with TSRA development anticipated in the next 1-2 hours...propagating southeastward through the evening in line with the HREF. With CAMS members ranging from discrete cells to at best a broken line across much of the CWA concern remains very large hail - baseball to softball...with MLCAPES expected to climb to over 3000 J/KG with max heating and 0-6 KM shear around 50 knots providing ample shear for supercells to initially form. The front will likely overtake the dry line from reaching the CWA but the potential for discrete supercells is expected based upon the environment and CAMs. The question over time then remains whether supercells congeal and or the frontal boundary becomes the main forcing leading to a line later this evening over the eastern Ozarks. Models continue to advertise redevelop of TSRA Wednesday along and a bit north of the frontal boundary that will sink to along or a bit south of the Arkansas border overnight. Unlike storms today which primarily will form within a band...storms on Wednesday will be clustered from late morning into the afternoon. With the front south of the border, the storms will be elevated with enough shear for sufficient rotation and instability for hail to the size of golf balls to be the primary threat followed by winds of 60 to 70 mph. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 A rather active pattern remains in the forecast with multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, and rainfall through the holiday weekend. Both the CSU/CIPS and SPC output continues to show this potential as well. As for temperatures for the weekend, expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Thursday - Sunday: SPC has a Slight Risk of severe weather issued for areas south and west of a line from Nevada to West Plains. A shortwave trough will move through Thursday evening in addition to an 850mb LLJ with widespread thunderstorms expected again. MUCAPE shows values near 2500-3000 J/kg with sufficient shear and moisture to produce thunderstorms. Some storms may be severe. Friday there may be lingering showers and thunderstorms from Thursday night that will slowly push east Friday morning. POPs start out at 30-50% but decrease as they day goes on. Which means Friday may be a brief break in the rainfall and storms. Another shortwave arrives Saturday evening into Sunday with SPC highlighting a 15-20% risk for severe weather on Sunday for areas east of I-49. Models hint at more widespread thunderstorm activity, but more details to come. Monday - Tuesday: Another shortwave moves through Monday night into Tuesday bringing an additional round of storms. Though, after Tuesday, ridging begins to build into the area and gives us a much needed break from severe weather/rain. With multiple days of rainfall expected, forecast rainfall totals show a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain with localized higher amounts possible. This may lead to localized flooding for areas that have already seen ample rainfall or that flood easily. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 504 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 A cold front is moving east across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma early this evening. A broken line of storms have developed along the front and will continue to move east across the area through the evening hours. A few isolated storms will also be possible across far southern and south central Missouri early this evening. IFR conditions will be possible with the storms on the cold front along with gusty winds and large hail. The storms will end from west to east this evening. South to southwesterly winds will occur ahead of the front with northwest to northerly winds developing tonight. Additional storms will be possible across southern Missouri Wednesday morning into the evening hours. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Wise