412
FXUS63 KSGF 171105
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
605 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect for portions of far southern
  Missouri until 9 AM on Tuesday, with visibilities of a quarter
  mile or less. Fog expected to linger longest around the Branson,
  Table Rock Lake, and Cassville areas, fully dissipating
  around 10 AM.

- Fog is expected outside of the Advisory area as well, but it
  will be less dense, less widespread, and less persistent after
  sunrise. Especially vulnerable are river valley areas.

- Dry and becoming unseasonably warm through the rest of the
  work week; hottest day on Friday, with highs near and above
  90.

- Next rain chances (20-35%) come this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Over the last couple days, between a half inch and an inch and a
half of rain has fallen over the White River Valley in Missouri. A
moist air mass has remained in place after the dissipation of
the low pressure system that brought the rain; in its place, an
area of broad high pressure centered over the northeast CONUS
has moved the region into southeast flow. This southeasterly
wind is coincidentally oriented directly along the fetch of Bull
Shoals, Table Rock, and other area lakes. With water
temperatures in the mid-70s and air temperatures in the mid- to
low 60s, an already saturated air column is being fueled with
additional energy from these lakes/rivers. Pair that with an
upslope wind, and you get dense reducing visibilities to below
a quarter mile in some areas.

With persistently low visibilities at some of the local weather
observation stations and several area cameras confirming fog in
multiple locations across the region, a Dense Fog Advisory has been
issued for portions of southern Missouri, especially within that
White River Valley area near the Arkansas state border.

Considering fog was first observed at 11:00 PM local time on
Monday night, it is expected that fog, some dense, will persist
through the entirety of the Tuesday morning commute. Based on
when temperatures will climb above their crossover temperatures
from Monday, the most likely timeframe for fog to fully
dissipate will be between 13-15Z (8AM-10 AM local time). The
areas that should expect to see the longest persistence are in
and around Branson, the greater Table Rock area, and towards
Cassville, because satellite products have consistently shown
these areas to have the largest cloud thickness and thus the
most dense fog.

It is also worth noting, however, that fog can and will be seen
outside of the Dense Fog Advisory area. Especially worth watching
are our river valleys, with a special shoutout to the Gasconade
River basin and the larger Lake of the Ozarks area, which also reaps
the benefit of some shoreline-parallel flow. Confidence in
widespread fog with visibilities below a quarter mile is far lower
in these "special shoutout" areas, and current thinking is that
advisory-criteria fog density will only be seen in the narrow
corridors of the river valleys, hence the omission from an
Advisory at this time.

Tuesday will be pleasant after the fog dissipates, perhaps with some
lingering low stratus that continues to clear as the day goes on.
Highs will range from upper 80s to near 90 degrees in the western
half of our County Warning Area, while temperatures will remain
in the mid-80s in the eastern Missouri Ozarks. Warm
southeasterly winds will remain between 5-10 mph, with <5%
chances for precipitation of any kind. Low temperatures into
Wednesday will be in the mid-60s out west, and in the upper 50s
to mid 60s south of I-44, becoming cooler with eastward extent.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper-level ridging that is building to our west will reassume
control of the large-scale pattern over the central US this week.
The storm system in the Carolinas weakens enough on Wednesday
that it loses its grip on the flow pattern of the Southeast,
allowing a high pressure to build over the Gulf Coast. This
high will funnel hot air from the Mexican Plateau into our
backyard, raising temperatures through the week. High temperatures
closer to the Plains will increase from upper 80s/low 90s on
Wednesday to firmly in the mid-90s by Friday, meanwhile in the
eastern Ozarks temps will climb from mid-80s on Wednesday to
near 90 on Friday. With the building ridge directly west of us,
all eyes turn to the trough ejecting into the West Coast at
time of issuance for the next chances for precipitation, which
come on Friday when the trough reaches the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Branson (BBG) and the southern Missouri Ozarks/northern Arkansas
Ozarks at large quickly devolved into VLIFR fog conditions
overnight, and fog in the higher terrain can be expected to
remain dense until mid-morning. Between 15Z-16Z is when full
dissipation of fog is expected, but it`s not out of the
question yet that it could take an hour or two longer to
dissipate around the terminal based on its location with respect
to the terrain. However, high-res models are in good agreeance
on the 15-16Z timeframe.

The rest of the Missouri Ozarks can expect some light fog, but
areas dealing with terrain will experience the largest
visibility decreases. Springfield (SGF) has some mist hanging
around the outskirts of the terminal, but with observations
bouncing around and sunrise approaching, confidence is low in
persistence of potential deterioration into MVFR.

Light and variable winds strengthen to 5-10 kts from the
southeast through the day Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Record High Temperatures (Joplin):

September 17:
95 (1953) Forecast: 90

September 19:
98 (1954) Forecast: 95



Record High Minimum Temperatures (Springfield):

September 20:
74 (2018)Forecast: 69

September 21:
73 (1931) Forecast: 68

September 22:
70 (2017)Forecast: 66



Record Lowest Precipitation for Month of September:

Springfield: 0.05" (1928)
September 2024 Thusfar: 0.04"

Joplin: 0.2" (2013)
September 2024 Thusfar: 0.00"

Vichy/Rolla: 0.19" (2017)
September 2024 Thusfar: 0.03"

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ094>098-
     102>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden/Burchfield