704
FXUS63 KSGF 092246
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
546 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of showers and storms will continue to push east
  across south central Missouri early this afternoon.

- Residual flooding will likely continue through the night into
  Monday after the area of 5 to 8 inches of rain over the past 2
  days.

- A cooler than average early this week with highs today through
  Tuesday in the middle 70s.

- Warmer Temperatures return later in the week into next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis
and water vapor imagery show a low pressure system over
southwestern Quebec with a trough extending south into the
Great Lakes and Ohio valley. A ridge was developing over the
Rockies and high plains with a northwesterly flow developing
over the central U.S. in between these features. This was
helping to slowly push a front south of the MO/AR border with a
surface high moving into the area. The boundary which was over
the area last night with tropical like moisture over the area
aided in training thunderstorms which brought about widespread
flooding. Two day totals of 5 to 8 inches have occurred in an
area from near Nevada to near Springfield to north of West
Plains. Many rivers remain in flood (minor to moderate) and
MODOT was reporting many low water crossings flooded throughout
the CWA.

Rest of the afternoon: Showers, with a few remaining rumbles of
thunder will continue to scoot eastward and out of the area
during the remainder of the afternoon, but should clear the area
by late afternoon or early evening. Cloud cover will likely
persist over much of the CWA, with some clearing taking place in
the northern CWA, eventually spreading southward.

Tonight: Clearing should continue from north to south with a
cooler and drier air mass moving into the area. Temperatures
should dip into the low to mid 50s for lows tonight. May need to
watch out for some fog development with a clearing sky and light
wind developing and the recent heavy rainfall. CAMS are not
really showing much for fog development and for now have left
out of the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Early part of the week: Residual flooding will likely continue
through at least Monday from the heavy rainfall this weekend.
North to northwest flow aloft will continue and bring in a
Canadian air mass with cooler and drier air to the area.
Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to low
80s for highs with lows Monday night in the 50s and Tuesday
night in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday through Saturday: A warming trend is expected through
the period. Flow will become more zonal by Wednesday with the
jet stream well to the north along the US/Canadian border. Some
upper ridging will move into the area. Moisture will continue to
increase on the back side of the surface high. Temperatures will
climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the week
into the upcoming weekend. May need to monitor for some
afternoon/evening instability based thunderstorms, but for now
am going with a dry forecast. A front may push through on Friday
into Friday night which would have a more focused chance of
convection, but for now we are keeping dry conditions going
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Skies have cleared from north to south across much of the area
but a few clouds could linger across far southern Missouri into
early this evening but will quickly clear this evening. Surface
high pressure is also moving south into the area and will allow
light winds this evening into Monday morning. A drier air mass
is also advecting into the region from the north. With the drier
air mass not expecting widespread fog development early Monday
morning, but cannot rule out some patchy ground fog in locations
that received heavy rain over the weekend. Confidence in fog
development at the TAF sites is low and therefore did not
mention in TAFs.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise