420
FXUS63 KSGF 080542
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Initial round of thunderstorms to move through the region overnight.
  Some storms may be severe with hail to the size of quarters
  possible.

- Additional chances for strong to severe storms late Saturday afternoon
  into Saturday night though main concern will be potential of
  heavy to excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding.

- A cooler than average start to next week with highs Monday and
  Tuesday in the middle 70s.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A few isolated showers and rumbles of thunder have developed
across portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri
early this evening. This activity will be short lived as a cap
remains in place across the area and most locations will remain
dry through much of the evening hours.

Attention then towards to convection that has developed across
portions of northwestern Kansas into central and eastern
Nebraska this evening. This activity has remained more discrete
in nature through much of the evening hours so far but should
start to develop into a MCS over the next few hours. The storms
will then move southeast into the overnight hours. The better
instability will remain west and north of the area tonight. The
storms will likely remain on the instability axis moving
southeast across northwestern Kansas then may move more east
across northern/central Missouri tonight into early Saturday
morning. The better instability and therefore severe risk will
overall remain northwest of the area but if a strong cold pool
develops with the MCS gusty winds will be possible into the area
mainly northwest of I-44 tonight. A few of the stronger storms
could also be capable of hail up to pennies to quarters with a
few of the updrafts. There could also be some locally heavier
rain with the storms tonight across the northern portions of the
area. The overall better potential for this activity tonight
into Saturday morning will be along and north of Hwy 54 with
more questions still on how far south the storms can make it
into far southern Missouri with more scattered in nature showers
and a few storms across far southern Missouri with this
activity tonight into Satruday morning.

The stroms will start to move into the far northwest portions of
the area across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri
between 12AM and 2AM tonight. The storms will then move east
southeast across the area overnight into early Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Surface high pressure that led to seasonably warm temperatures and
comfortable dew points in the 50s this afternoon will continue to
depart into the Ohio Valley setting up a transition to unsettled
weather this weekend.

Convective allowing models are in agreement with a subtle mid level
wave kicking off a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over central
Nebraska, forward propagating into a moderately unstable airmass
into southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas later this evening.

Questions exist in how the MCS will propagate into Missouri as there
is a significant instability gradient orientated along the
Missouri/Kansas border as a southerly low level jet across OK into
KS veers and weakens into western MO.  With instability diminishing
further into the state, elevated convection is expected to diminish
in intensity then diminish in coverage as it tracks toward Lake of
the Ozarks region later tonight.  Additional more isolated
convection will be possible into southeast Kansas as well.

Highlighted the greater likelihood of storms across central
MO...with diminishing chances to around 50% along I-44 and then
15- 30% along the Arkansas border...with impacts tied to
quarter size hail mainly west of Highway 65 and north of Highway
54.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The remnants of the MCS diminishing eastward Saturday morning along
with the combination of outflow boundary(s) and a north-south
orientated warm front will become the focus for storm development
late Saturday afternoon into the night.

With sunshine increasing as overnight cloud debris thins, moderate
to strong instability will develop as MLCAPE increases to 3000 J/KG.
Negatives include an EML/surface capping plus weak 0-6KM shear bring
questions to the overall development and organization of convection.

A weakening west to east orientated cold front will eventually lay
out over the forecast area Saturday night, leading to concerns over
a significant rainfall event.  Ahead of the front, precipital water
will increase to near 2 inches as the warm front clears the forecast
area and a 40-50 knot low level jet reforms.

Training convection appears likely with conservative QPF ranging
from 1-3 inches, though LPMN amounts approaching 6 inches and the
max HREF over far southwest MO offering nearly 7 inch amounts.
Surface soils have dried a bit but still remain moist potentially
leading to a considerable flood threat.

As his system departs east on Sunday...upper flow will weaken as the
storm track shifts further north shift.  A weak wave will advect
across the Plains midweek leading to a limited chance for rain...but
for most the work week will be dry. Temperatures that start out
unseasonably cool will gradual warm back into the upper 80s by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Thunderstorms upwind of the area will mainly track north of the
TAF sites, but a band is expected to develop on the south end
and track across at least KSGF and KJLN. There is uncertainty in
how far south convection develops, so KBBG is more uncertain.
VFR conditions are expected behind the early morning storms
before additional storms develop Saturday evening into early
Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Titus