938
FXUS63 KSGF 091723
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of showers and storms will continue to push east
  across south central Missouri early this afternoon.

- Residual flooding will likely continue through the night into
  Monday.

- A cooler than average early this week with highs today through
  Tuesday in the middle 70s.

-Warmer Temperatures return later in the week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and storms continue to develop from central Kansas
through the Missouri Ozarks this morning ahead of an upper
trough. Heavy rainfall will continue to occur with the storms
and where training of storms occur a flooding risk will continue
to occur this morning. The heaviest rainfall amounts from
Saturday evening have occurred in bands with 3 to locally 6
inches of rainfall already falling across portions of the area.
Flooding is ongoing in these locations where the heavy rainfall
has occurred. Outside these heavier bands rainfall amounts drop
off sharply. The last main round of rain is currently pushing
east across central Kansas early this morning as this activity
will continue to move east into the area this morning.
Additional heavy rainfall will occur with this activity as
precipitable water values are around two inches. Where this
additional rainfall occurs in areas that already received heavy
rainfall, the flood threat will increase. This next round of
rain is setting up to occur from Fort Scott Kansas to
Springfield to West Plains Missouri this morning. The majority
of the rain will end later this morning. A cold front will push
south through the area this morning into the afternoon. A few
scattered showers and storms will remain possible into this
afternoon across far southern Missouri as the front moves south.

The overall severe risk is decreasing across the area early
this morning as the instability is weakening though a few strong
to severe storms will still be possible through this morning
with damaging wind gusts up to 60mph and hail up to the quarters
this morning, but this will continue to be more isolated in
nature.

Highs will only warm into the lower to middle 70s this
afternoon as cooler temperatures move into the area and clouds
remain in place much of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An upper level trough will move south through the region early
this week. Below normal temperatures are expected through
Tuesday as highs in the 70s occur both days.

An upper level ridge will build east across the plains towards
the region during the second half of the week into next weekend.
A warmer air mass will also advect into the region with highs in
the middle 80s to around 90 returning to the area during this
time. The rainfall chances are overall on the lower side this
week. An upper level disturbance will move east across the
plains but at this time the ensemble model members show the
better rainfall chances remaining west and south of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

For the 18z TAFS, rain has generally ended at the 3 TAF sites,
but still have IFR/MVFR conditions with low ceilings. This will
gradually improved through the remainder of the afternoon. Drier
air will continue to work south into the area with high
pressure, eventually clearing things out during the early to
middle evening hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg