Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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144 FXUS63 KSGF 091123 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 623 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms will continue to move across the area this morning, with a few lingering storms into this afternoon across southern Missouri. Heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to occur with this activity across portions of the area today. A few strong to severe storms will also remain possible early this morning. - A cooler than average early this week with highs today through Tuesday in the middle 70s. -Warmer Temperatures return later in the week into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and storms continue to develop from central Kansas through the Missouri Ozarks this morning ahead of an upper trough. Heavy rainfall will continue to occur with the storms and where training of storms occur a flooding risk will continue to occur this morning. The heaviest rainfall amounts from Saturday evening have occurred in bands with 3 to locally 6 inches of rainfall already falling across portions of the area. Flooding is ongoing in these locations where the heavy rainfall has occurred. Outside these heavier bands rainfall amounts drop off sharply. The last main round of rain is currently pushing east across central Kansas early this morning as this activity will continue to move east into the area this morning. Additional heavy rainfall will occur with this activity as precipitable water values are around two inches. Where this additional rainfall occurs in areas that already received heavy rainfall, the flood threat will increase. This next round of rain is setting up to occur from Fort Scott Kansas to Springfield to West Plains Missouri this morning. The majority of the rain will end later this morning. A cold front will push south through the area this morning into the afternoon. A few scattered showers and storms will remain possible into this afternoon across far southern Missouri as the front moves south. The overall severe risk is decreasing across the area early this morning as the instability is weakening though a few strong to severe storms will still be possible through this morning with damaging wind gusts up to 60mph and hail up to the quarters this morning, but this will continue to be more isolated in nature. Highs will only warm into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon as cooler temperatures move into the area and clouds remain in place much of the day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An upper level trough will move south through the region early this week. Below normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday as highs in the 70s occur both days. An upper level ridge will build east across the plains towards the region during the second half of the week into next weekend. A warmer air mass will also advect into the region with highs in the middle 80s to around 90 returning to the area during this time. The rainfall chances are overall on the lower side this week. An upper level disturbance will move east across the plains but at this time the ensemble model members show the better rainfall chances remaining west and south of the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 For the 12z TAFS, convection will likely continue through the morning hours at the TAF sites, possibly extending into the early afternoon before diminishing and moving out of the area. Generally went with MVFR/IFR conditions within the convection. Clearing should take place during the late afternoon and evening with wind becoming light and variable. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Lindenberg