497
FXUS63 KSGF 081904
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
204 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...


- A few scattered storms this afternoon. Strong to severe storms
  possible this evening and tonight. Good chance for heavy rain
  and flooding to occur tonight with many locations expected to
  receive 1 to 3 inches of rain. Pockets of repeated heavy rain
  may lead to some amounts of 5 to 7 inches of rain and flash
  flooding.

- A cooler than average start to next week with highs Monday and
  Tuesday in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a fairly zonal pattern across the
CONUS with the main jet energy along the northern tier states.
Some low level jet energy was from the southwest to northeast
across southern Missouri. Precipitable water values from the 12z
SGF sounding were 1.85" which eclipses the daily max
climatalogically. MCS remnant clouds cleared out this morning
and we`ve been seeing some cumulus develop as the air becomes
unstable across the area this afternoon. Temperatures in the low
to mid 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s were
yielding surface based CAPE values in the 1000-3500 j/kg range.

Rest of the afternoon and tonight: A surface boundary was
shifting into the area from the southwest and is expected to
become fairly stationary over the area tonight. PW values are
expected to remain very high over the area in the 1.8 to 2.2"
range. A few scattered storms may develop during the afternoon
and may be strong to severe with hail to the size of ping pongs
and wind gusts up to 60 mph. More numerous storms are then
expected this evening into the overnight with the same severe
weather risk along with widespread heavy rain. The best chances
for the heaviest rain will be along and north of the frontal
boundary roughly in a wide corridor from Nevada to Springfield
to Eminence. Repeated thunderstorms with heavy rain within this
corridor are expected tonight with widespread 1 to 3 inches of
rain. Some localized areas of 5 to 7 inches of rain can not be
ruled out which will likely lead to flash flooding. A flood
watch is in effect for the entire area through Sunday afternoon.

Sunday: Thunderstorms with heavy rain will be ongoing Sunday
morning along with likely flash flooding where the storms
trained across the same locations. The overall trend will be to
shift south into southern Missouri and eventually out of the
area with less coverage during the afternoon hours and mainly
over the south. The cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures
cooler on Sunday with highs generally in the 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Early next week: We`ll be on the western edge of the upper level
trough with northerly flow that will bring a strong area of
surface high pressure into the area. This will force the higher
dew points and temperatures to the south and should keep the
rain chances out of the area, while bringing a cooler and drier
air mass to the region for the beginning of next week. Highs
will generally be in the 70s on Monday and Monday night with
lows in the 50s.


Tuesday: The high pressure system will begin to shift to the
east and we will start to see some return moisture beginning to
creep back into the western CWA. An upper shortwave will dive
southeast and potentially clip our southwest CWA, so we have
some low pops (15-25%).

Wed - Fri: Moisture will continue to increase over the area
along with afternoon/evening instability so low pops will be in
the forecast on a daily basis. The main upper level support will
be well to the north of the area during this period, so
widespread severe storms are not expected at this time.




&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

For the 18z TAFS, increasing afternoon instability and a nearly
stationary front draped across the area will be the focus for
potentially late afternoon convection and more likely evening
and overnight convection across the area. Very heavy rainfall is
expected with the thunderstorms given the high moisture content
in the atmosphere. MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible with
the convection which will be most likely after 01z this evening.
Clearing will then take place by mid to late morning on Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg