187
FXUS63 KSGF 081146
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
646 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing early morning thunderstorms will pose a gusty wind and
  localized flooding threat as they move east over the next few
  hours.

- Additional chances for strong to severe storms late this
  afternoon into tonight. Large hail to the size of ping pong
  balls, 60 mph winds, and a conditional tornado threat are
  possible with these storms, though main concern will be
  potential of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding with
  locally 5-7 inches of rain.

- A cooler than average start to next week with highs Monday and
  Tuesday in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Busy morning with ongoing convection, so will keep this short,
sweet, and to the point.

Ongoing early morning convection will pose a marginal wind
threat, mainly up to 50 mph, and a localized flood threat as it
progresses eastward.

Attention then turns to this afternoon and evening, then into
Sunday morning.

This afternoon/evening:

Shortwave ridging should bring a break in precip and allow for
temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s (heat index
values of 90-100). This should result in an area of 3,500-4,500
J/kg of MLCAPE late this afternoon into the evening, with deep
layer shear values of 35-50 kts. Initial isolated to scattered
convection is expected to develop on the left over boundary from
morning storms, but exactly where that is remains somewhat in
question and poorly handled by models. Supercells with ping
pong size hail, 60 mph winds, and a conditional tornado threat
are possible. The hail size may need to be increased in later
updates. The tornado threat is small (agree with SPC 2%) and
conditional based on ideal interactions with the left over
boundary.

Tonight into Sunday morning:

Additional clusters to storms are expected tonight into Sunday
morning, which will tend to become linear pretty quickly. Main
risks are hail up to half dollar size, 60 mph winds, and
perhaps a weak tornado. The The storms should train along the
boundary, wherever that hangs up, resulting a corridor of heavy
rainfall and flash flooding. Depending on how much storms train,
considerable flash flooding may result. HREF LPMM data shows
pockets of 5-7 inches of rain, which is what we are messaging
from localized higher end amounts. There is likely to be a sharp
cutoff, or at least reduction, in precip to the southwest, but
without being able to pinpoint where the boundary will hang up,
we can`t say where that will be. Therefore, have included the
entire area in a Flood Watch from this evening through early
Sunday afternoon. WPC has issued a moderate day 1 excessive
rainfall outlook. All this to say that flooding continues to be
the greatest, and potentially significant, overall concern for
tonight into Sunday morning.

Rain looks to diminish during the day Sunday, with highs in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Not much to discuss in the long term. Overall look for highs in
the upper 70s to around 80 Monday and Tuesday, increasing to the
upper 80s by Thursday and Friday. Could see some light rain
chances Sunday night into Monday, then again Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push east early this
morning, leaving VFR conditions for much of the rest of today.
Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected
this evening, but location is uncertain. Greater coverage of
showers and storms is then expected today. Severe weather and
heavy rainfall are possible this evening and tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus