491
FXUS64 KSHV 050309
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1009 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

No major wholesale updates are required to the forecast package
at this time. Increased PoPs and added severe wording to the wx
grids to account for the most recent approximate consensus of
short range high resolution models.

As of this writing, impacts from the MCS developing in central
Oklahoma look to begin in McCurtain county between 08Z and 09Z,
tracking southeast toward the Three-State Point by 12Z and
further into the ArkLaTex as the morning continues.

No Severe products are in effect for the ArkLaTex at this time,
but Watch issuance within the next several hours is likely, based
on the evolution of the storms in Oklahoma. Damaging winds will
the primary threat, with large hail and a spinup tornado or two
also within the realm of possibility.

In addition to the convective hazards, flash flooding will be a
chief concern, as the region remains highly saturated and runoff
is causing area waterways to continue to rise further, ahead of
the heavy rainfall with the overnight and early morning storms.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Unfortunately, another active short-term is on the horizon, as
another thunderstorm complex looks to move into the region
overnight, and linger through tomorrow afternoon. This MCS will
very much resemble what we`ve been experiencing the last two days,
with it moving into the area from the NW, exiting to the SE. A
slight risk for severe weather remains in place across the region,
as this MCS will be capable of producing damaging winds.

Elsewhere, a moderate risk for excessive rainfall remains in
effect for the overnight hours, as additional heavy rainfall is
anticipated into tomorrow afternoon. Given the saturated soils,
the flood watch remains in effect through tomorrow afternoon, as
it won`t take much for additional flash flooding to occur. 1-3
inches of additional rainfall are possible, with locally heavier
amounts certainly possible given these heavier rainfall rates.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

With all that bad news out of the way, there is a glimmer of hope
of dry weather in the long-term. Upper-level ridging will nudge
north into the day on Thursday, shifting the NW flow back to the
north as well. This will result in limited rain chances into the
day on Saturday, before this ridge begins to slightly retreat into
Sunday. So while rain chances during this timeframe will be
limited, high temperatures will begin to skyrocket, with highs in
the mid-90s anticipated by Thursday.

Come Monday, a trough and cold front will begin to work through
the Midwest, with the front extending all the way back into W.
Texas. This front will begin to increase rain chances once again
across the region, with thunderstorm chances returning as well.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions will continue this evening, as elevated cigs
persist in wake of widespread convection that has shifted ESE
into Ern MS/SE LA. MVFR cigs should redevelop after 06Z Wednesday
over E TX, possibly spreading NNE into Wrn LA/extreme SW AR
by/after 08Z, ahead of another thunderstorm complex that will
develop this evening over Cntrl/Srn OK, and quickly shift SE into
the region after 06Z. This convection should affect the
TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV terminals between 08-11Z, and the remaining
terminals by/shortly before 12Z, and could result in gusty winds
in excess of 30kts, MVFR cigs, reduced vsbys, and extreme
turbulence. Cigs should return to VFR within a few hours following
the arrival of the convection, with mainly AC/cirrus cigs expected
in its wake. Additional scattered convection may redevelop during
the afternoon over the area, where VCSH was added to the area
terminals. However, these should eventually diminish by late
afternoon/evening, with VFR conditions persisting Wednesday night.
SSE winds 6-10kts tonight will become VRB 10kts with the arrival
of the convection late. Winds should eventually become WSW 5-8kts
by late morning/during the afternoon Wednesday. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  89  72  94 /  50  60  20  10
MLU  73  87  70  92 /  20  70  30  10
DEQ  68  87  63  92 /  80  30   0   0
TXK  71  88  68  94 /  70  50  10   0
ELD  69  86  67  93 /  50  50  10   0
TYR  73  89  70  93 /  30  30  10   0
GGG  72  88  70  93 /  40  50  10   0
LFK  75  90  72  93 /  10  50  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...15