674
FXUS64 KSHV 180604
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
104 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Upper-trough swinging east across the region to allow for partly
to mostly cloudy skies across much of north Louisiana and Deep
East Texas through the early morning hours. Skies to gradually
improve as the upper-trough swings east of the region through
daybreak with northwest flow building behind it.

A weak frontal boundary migrating east across the ArkLaTex could
initiate a stray shower or thunderstorm across portions of north
Louisiana and south Arkansas through daybreak. Additionally, as
skies clear from the west, fog may develop through daybreak due to
abundant moisture from recent rainfall. For this update, went
ahead and increased fog coverage areawide. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Slow-moving upper trough axis continues to trudge its way across the
Red River Valley this afternoon, maintaining expansive cloud cover
but very little in the way of convection thus far. However, we may
see a slight uptick in convective coverage this evening across our
NW zones invof the base of the trough axis as it shifts along the
I-30 corridor. Farther south along the TX coast, southern stream
shortwave energy is embedded within SW flow aloft just north of a
sfc frontal boundary just off the coast. This could also allow for
some isolated convection to affect our southeasternmost zones this
evening, but overall expect the region to remain largely free of
convection tonight with low temperatures ranging through the 60s.

As the upper trough gradually shifts east of the region through
the day on Saturday, expect any lingering convection across our
easternmost zones to gradually diminish throughout the day. High
temperatures will recover rather comfortably as cloud cover thins
throughout the day as well, allowing for mid and upper 80s to near
90 degrees in a few locations. Clearing skies tomorrow evening and
overnight along with light winds will yield another night of lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A return of warmer and more humid conditions will commence on
Sunday as high pressure shifts east of the region and Gulf of
Mexico moisture gradually increases from early to mid next week.
Looking aloft, an upper ridge will also be building across the
South Central CONUS, further serving to propel high temperatures
into the lower and possibly mid 90s by Sunday and especially into
next week.

The ridge axis will eventually shift farther into the SE CONUS by
mid to late week, opening the door for the next trough out west
to encroach on our region. This will assist a frontal boundary in
advancing SE toward our northern zones by late Wednesday and into
Thursday, but uncertainty remains as to how far south this front
will manage to make it before stalling. Regardless, this should
allow for at least some low end rain chances to return to much of
the region by mid to late week along with slightly milder temps to
end the period.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Quiet evening across the airspace as the center of an upper low
sits just north of the KELD terminal. Upper level cirrus continues
to feed into the airspace from decaying TSRA SW of KAUS so FEW250
will prevail for many to start the period. Areas of BR/FG will be
possible through the early hours of the package prior to daytime
heating. Afternoon CU field looks promising across much the
airspace before decreasing in coverage by the evening.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  69  92  72 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  88  67  90  68 /  20   0   0   0
DEQ  86  64  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  88  67  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  87  65  90  67 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  89  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  88  68  91  70 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  89  68  91  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...53