730
FXUS64 KTSA 112315
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
615 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Surface ridge axis extending from Great Lakes into OK/AR keeping
relatively dry airmass over the area for now with dew points
remaining in the upper 50s/low 60s. Upper wave moving across NW
Texas continues to bring high clouds into southeast OK but precip
will remain off to our southwest. Should see one more night of
below normal low temps as a result.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Overall conditions will be trending in the direction of summertime
as upper ridge expands over the southern states and surface high
moves off to the east allowing s warmer and more humid airmass
to expand over the region the next few days. NBM seems under-done
at this time and have trended dew point temps more toward higher
CONSMOS values. Combined with daytime highs in the low/mid 90s,
will begin to see Heat Index values around 100 in many areas,
possibly as early as Thursday.

Overall precipitation chances will remain low in this pattern,
however both Thursday night and Saturday night could see at least
a low chance of storms moving into northern parts of the area.
Thursday night convection along a frontal boundary in the Central
Plains could eventually make a run at northeast OK, but given the
expanding upper ridge this appears unlikely at this time. A few
storms associated with an upper wave moving out of the Rockies
this weekend could also flirt with northeast OK Saturday night or
Sunday morning. The ridge axis should be pushed far enough east
by early next week to allow a surge of deeper Gulf moisture into
the area for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with some mid to
high cloud over the region through tomorrow. Winds will mainly
stay light and variable tonight before becoming southerly during
the day tomorrow around 5-10 knots.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  91  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   65  89  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   65  89  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  90  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   58  87  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   60  87  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   63  88  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   62  87  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
F10   63  87  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   65  87  64  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04