962
FXUS64 KTSA 310711
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
211 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The 18Z HRRR from yesterday has a better handle on the current
convective situation than any runs afterward and was used for
guidance in the near term. The northern portion of a large MCS,
which stretches from west-central TX up into south-central OK, is
expected to slide across far southeast OK this morning. Some
increase in scattered showers and storms are also expected ahead
of it across west- central AR and southeast OK before daybreak.
The potential for heavy rain will be greatest in the flood watch
area (Choctaw county) with the MCS, with the threat ending as it
shifts east. Will therefore adjust ending time of flood watch to
15Z. This is all in association with a trough of low pressure
aloft that will be sliding over the region today. In the wake of
the morning MCS down south, the data focuses storm coverage over
western AR and neighboring far eastern OK, on the east side of the
low pressure aloft. Storm coverage looks more scattered than
anything, thus kept thunder probs below PoP forecast quite a bit.
PoPs and thunder probs will decrease tonight as the low pressure
aloft slides east and we lose daytime heating.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

After a relative lull on Saturday, PoPs/thunder chances increase
some on Sunday as a weak wave slides across. Higher rain/storm
chances are then expected Sunday night into Monday as a front
approaches from the north. Another relative lull in the action is
expected Tuesday before another potentially stronger shortwave
trough and associated cold front affect the Plains. The 12Z EC was
very amplified with this system and had a stronger cold front,
whereas the other global models were not near as aggressive.
Ensemble cluster analysis suggests that the 12Z EC solution had a
lower prob chance of verifying, and climatology would also argue
against it as well. Nevertheless, a front will push into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday with higher rain/storm
chances, and there`s definitely potential for an MCS to sweep
across the region during this time. If the stronger flow aloft
from the EC verifies, this MCS would have higher chances of being
severe. Mainly quiet weather is expected to close out the work
week.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas of light rain are ongoing across northwest AR this morning
with the rest of the area being dry. So far CIGS have not come
down much, but they are expected to overnight, with CIGS of 1-2
kft being common by daybreak. Low CIGS of 1-3 kft will persist
through the day Friday before breaking up in the evening.

Additional showers will develop across northwest AR overnight
through mid morning. Isolated showers will be possible for all
locations during much of the day tomorrow, elected to go with a
long period of vicinity showers in the TAF to cover this
possibility. An isolated thunderstorm could occur at any taf site,
but confidence was too low to include in the TAFs for now. Winds
will be light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  63  85  66 /  60  30  10  10
FSM   76  66  86  66 /  80  60  20  10
MLC   77  63  85  66 /  80  30  20  10
BVO   75  60  84  62 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   73  62  81  62 /  80  60  20  10
BYV   72  62  80  61 /  80  70  20   0
MKO   75  63  83  65 /  70  50  10  10
MIO   73  62  82  62 /  70  40  10  10
F10   75  62  84  65 /  70  30  10  10
HHW   77  65  84  67 /  90  40  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ053.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06