750
FXUS64 KTSA 240528
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Vast majority of precip has now dissipated or moved east of the area
with just some very light rain/ drizzle being reported across parts
of far NE OK/ NW AR. Have reduced PoPs accordingly with a dry
forecast overnight. Given recent rainfall, small T/Td spreads,
clearing skies, and light winds... at least patchy fog is expected
to develop across the CWA late this evening and overnight. A
corridor of more concentrated dense fog potential is expected across
far NE OK & NW AR, as well as S-central OK (primarily in areas which
received the most rain recently). As a result, have expanded fog
coverage across the entire CWA tonight with mention of dense fog in
the aforementioned higher potential areas. A Dense Fog Advisory will
probably be required at some point tonight for these areas, and will
be monitoring trends late this evening/ early overnight to determine
locations most likely to be impacted.

Aside from edits to PoPs & fog potential mentioned above, the
current forecast is tracking well with no significant changes
necessary at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Remainder of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Showers continue to linger across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas this afternoon as a mid-level shortwave moves across the
region. This activity is expected to exit the area to the east
this evening. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out during
this time.

A cooler night is on tap for the area tonight with patchy fog
possible across much of the area. The greatest concentration of
fog is expected across northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Patchy fog is forecast to persist into mid-morning Tuesday before
dissipating. Most of Tuesday is forecast to be dry with the
chances of showers/storms returning Tuesday night as the next
upperlevel shortwave dives into the Mid-Mississippi Valley while
intensifying

Shower/storm chances continue mid-week as the upper level low spins
over the Mississippi Valley. The forecast for late week into the
weekend is more complicated and is highly dependent on the interaction
of PTC 9 and the aforementioned upper level low.  As of right now,
the highest potential for showers and storms across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas will come on Friday as tropical moisture
interacts with the Mississippi Valley upper level low. Locally heavy
rains will be a concern. This will be especially true across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.  The chances of showers/storms decrease
Saturday into Sunday as the storm system begins to exit to the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For eastern OK, conditions are currently mostly clear but areas of
fog will develop as the night progresses. Similarly, for
northwest and west-central AR, low ceilings are in place in the
1-3 kft range. These clouds will move east with time, but as they
do so fog will also develop. Many terminals are expected to see
visibility reductions down to 1/2 to 2 miles overnight. During
the day Tuesday clouds will thicken and lower, with ceilings down
to about 6-7 kft during the evening hours. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms (10-20% chance) are possible, with the best
chance of thunder near KMLC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  57  80  56 /  10  20  10   0
FSM   84  61  83  60 /   0  40  10   0
MLC   84  58  83  56 /  10  50  10   0
BVO   80  52  82  51 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   78  54  79  53 /  10  20  20   0
BYV   76  55  78  54 /  10  10  20  10
MKO   79  57  80  54 /  10  30  10   0
MIO   76  53  78  52 /  10  10  10   0
F10   81  56  80  53 /  10  30  10   0
HHW   86  61  83  58 /   0  40  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...06