Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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069 FXUS64 KTSA 240850 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Mid and upper level cloudiness will be on the increase today as an upper level disturbance approaches from the north. A few showers and thunderstorms may begin to move into the western parts of the area by late afternoon, but most precipitation will hold off until closer to sunset. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous this evening, with the greatest coverage of precipitation and best chance of storms remaining across the western and southern parts of the forecast area. Precipitation will be ending from north to south during the overnight hours. A closed upper low is forecast to become cut off just to our east late this week into early next week. Moisture wrapping around this low will bring rain chances back to the area late Thursday and especially Friday, with the greatest chances in the eastern part of the forecast area. Rain chances will then linger into the weekend across at least far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through much of the forecast period as the upper low sits and spins just to our east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 For eastern OK, conditions are currently mostly clear but areas of fog will develop as the night progresses. Similarly, for northwest and west-central AR, low ceilings are in place in the 1-3 kft range. These clouds will move east with time, but as they do so fog will also develop. Many terminals are expected to see visibility reductions down to 1/2 to 2 miles overnight. During the day Tuesday clouds will thicken and lower, with ceilings down to about 6-7 kft during the evening hours. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (10-20% chance) are possible, with the best chance of thunder near KMLC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 57 81 56 / 20 30 0 0 FSM 83 61 82 59 / 10 40 10 0 MLC 84 58 82 54 / 10 60 0 0 BVO 78 51 81 51 / 10 20 0 0 FYV 78 52 78 50 / 10 30 10 0 BYV 77 54 78 54 / 10 20 10 0 MKO 81 56 81 55 / 10 40 0 0 MIO 76 52 78 51 / 10 20 0 0 F10 82 56 81 53 / 10 40 0 0 HHW 87 62 81 56 / 0 70 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>071. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...06