Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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932 FXUS64 KTSA 190913 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 413 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may affect parts of northeast Oklahoma this morning, but most places will remain dry. Unseasonably hot temperatures will prevail, with afternoon highs in the 90s. Heat index values may briefly reach near 105 in a few spots this afternoon, but the coverage and duration of such values look limited enough to preclude any heat headlines at this time. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon near and east of a weak surface trough across north central Oklahoma, with these storms moving into parts of northeast Oklahoma towards the end of the day. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest storms. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Storm coverage remains uncertain into the evening hours, but at least a few isolated storms are likely to continue for awhile and propagate south before dissipating by late evening. Friday looks like another unseasonably hot day, likely even hotter than today, with afternoon heat index values again near 105 in some places. Late afternoon and evening storm chances Friday remain low...below mentionable levels...but non-zero. Saturday will be another hot day, with low shower and storm chances across northern parts of the area. Changes begin to take place Sunday as an upper level storm system moves northeast into the plains allowing a cold front to approach the area from the west. Shower and storm chances will be greatest late Sunday into Sunday night as this cold fromt moves across our area. Much cooler weather will follow the passage of this front early next week, with below normal temperatures at least for a couple days. Low rain chances may return Tuesday night and Wednesday as a shortwave moves across the area, but confidence in precipitation during this time frame is low. Attention may also turn to the Gulf of Mexico next week for the potential for tropical cyclone development. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Scattered to broken mid/high clouds are expected overnight across parts of Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas. Isolated showers look to be part of this cloud cover. However...with isolated coverage will keep a mention out of TAFs...though KBVO would have the higher of the isolated potential late tonight/early morning Thursday. Across the rest of the CWA tonight...mostly clear to scattered high clouds are forecast. During the day Thursday...scattered to broken mid and high clouds should become common over most of the CWA. Thunderstorm chances increase during the afternoon into evening hours...with the greater potential across Northeast Oklahoma. Thus...will add Prob30 groups for timing at KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. By mid evening...much of the thunderstorm development is forecast to weaken with scattered to broken high clouds remaining overnight over the CWA. Winds through the period start out between east and southerly and become breezy out of the south during the day Thursday. These winds should weaken Thursday evening. VFR conditions outside of any thunderstorm activity are currently forecast for the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 96 74 99 77 / 20 20 10 10 FSM 94 74 96 75 / 10 20 10 0 MLC 96 74 99 74 / 10 20 10 0 BVO 97 69 99 72 / 20 20 10 10 FYV 91 70 94 70 / 10 20 10 10 BYV 92 71 95 72 / 10 20 10 10 MKO 94 73 97 74 / 10 20 10 0 MIO 94 71 96 74 / 20 20 10 10 F10 96 73 99 74 / 10 20 10 0 HHW 95 71 98 72 / 10 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...20