183
FXUS64 KTSA 241104
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
604 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Mid and upper level cloudiness will be on the increase today as an
upper level disturbance approaches from the north. A few showers
and thunderstorms may begin to move into the western parts of the
area by late afternoon, but most precipitation will hold off until
closer to sunset. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range
from the mid 70s to the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous this
evening, with the greatest coverage of precipitation and best
chance of storms remaining across the western and southern parts
of the forecast area. Precipitation will be ending from north to
south during the overnight hours.

A closed upper low is forecast to become cut off just to our east
late this week into early next week. Moisture wrapping around this
low will bring rain chances back to the area late Thursday and
especially Friday, with the greatest chances in the eastern part
of the forecast area. Rain chances will then linger into the
weekend across at least far eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through
much of the forecast period as the upper low sits and spins just
to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas of fog will continue through 14-15Z for eastern OK.
Visibility will reduce to 1/4 mile at times but will be highly
variable. In northwest and west- central AR no fog has been
observed, instead, low ceilings of around 1-2 kft will continue
through mid morning. During the late morning to early afternoon
ceilings will redevelop around 15 kft, lowering to 6-8 kft during
the late afternoon to early evening. Areas of showers are expected
to develop, with isolated thunderstorms possible for southeast
OK. Winds will be light through the period, becoming northerly by
this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  81  56 /  20  30   0   0
FSM   83  61  82  59 /  10  40  10   0
MLC   84  58  82  54 /  10  60   0   0
BVO   78  51  81  51 /  10  20   0   0
FYV   78  52  78  50 /  10  30  10   0
BYV   77  54  78  54 /  10  20  10   0
MKO   81  56  81  55 /  10  40   0   0
MIO   76  52  78  51 /  10  20   0   0
F10   82  56  81  53 /  10  40   0   0
HHW   87  62  81  56 /   0  70  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>074.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06